Spirit team
A case on CSGORUN (oldcasesale), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.
Price
$0.18
Advertised RTP
90.78%
EV $0.16 from 42 items
Observed RTP, 30d
104.36%
5,724 openings, odds method
Variance
3.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
22.8%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
66.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 96.32% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (99.29% – 109.44%, 5,724 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values42 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 5,724 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgorun:v1/box/spirit_team/show, 11 Nov, 16:28 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.78%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $0.18 | 90.78% | 42 |
| 4 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $0.16 | 102.13% | 42 |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $0.16 | 98.04% | 42 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listed1 0.7%7 4.7%mil spec 0.0%extraordinary 0.0%gold 0.0%classified 0.0%uncommon 4.1%Mythical 0.9%pink 0.4%#d32ce6 0.0%violet 2.8%restricted 1.7%#8847ff 0.7%blue 1.3%Uncommon 8.5%milspec 15.6%other 15.2%Rare 10.8%#4b69ff 5.1%light blue 7.3%#5e98d9 14.1%#b0c3d9 6.4%best hit $11.07 (69.19x)