Sportfield

A case on CSGORUN (coll2026), first seen 5 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

Price

$5.49

Advertised RTP

92.93%

EV $5.10 from 21 items

Observed RTP, 30d

87.95%

141 openings, sample method

Variance

1.5×

of price², per opening

Tail share

16.3%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

83.7%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

1 openings · below min

7 days

141 openings · below min

30 days

141 openings · below min

since tracking started

141 openings · below min

-0.5%125.8%252.0%

Small sample. 141 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	1	11.29%±240.1	—	odds
7d	141	87.95%±19.5	—	sample
30d	141	87.95%±19.5	—	sample
All	141	87.95%±19.5	—	sample

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values21 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 141 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
M4A1-S \| Fade (Minimal Wear)weapon · epic	1 in 125,000	$221	0.0%	0	0.0	—
M4A1-S \| Fade (Factory New)weapon · epic	1 in 62,500	$172	0.1%	0	0.0	—
Glock-18 \| AXIA (Factory New)weapon · rare	1 in 637	$47.21	1.5%	0	0.2	—
Galil AR \| Rainbow Spoon (Factory New)weapon · rare	1 in 74	$26.66	7.1%	2	1.9	1.04×
Glock-18 \| AXIA (Minimal Wear)weapon · rare	1 in 52	$21.39	8.1%	4	2.7	1.46×
Galil AR \| Rainbow Spoon (Field-Tested)weapon · rare	1 in 36	$19.94	10.8%	4	3.9	1.03×
Glock-18 \| AXIA (Field-Tested)weapon · rare	1 in 36	$19.88	10.7%	2	3.9	0.52×
Galil AR \| Rainbow Spoon (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 39	$19.83	10.0%	3	3.6	0.82×
Five-SeveN \| Heat Treated (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 21	$14.95	14.0%	6	6.8	0.89×
MP9 \| Arctic Tri-Tone (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 14	$4.88	6.7%	10	9.8	1.02×
UMP-45 \| Crimson Foil (Factory New)weapon · violet	1 in 14	$4.12	5.6%	4	9.8	0.41×
MP9 \| Arctic Tri-Tone (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 14	$3.00	4.1%	10	9.8	1.02×
Five-SeveN \| Heat Treated (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet	1 in 14	$2.77	3.8%	10	9.8	1.02×
Five-SeveN \| Heat Treated (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 14	$2.27	3.1%	13	9.8	1.32×
UMP-45 \| Crimson Foil (Minimal Wear)weapon · uncommon	1 in 14	$2.25	3.1%	9	9.8	0.92×
MP9 \| Arctic Tri-Tone (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 14	$2.19	3.0%	7	9.8	0.71×
UMP-45 \| Crimson Foil (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 14	$2.19	3.0%	13	9.8	1.32×
Nova \| Yorkshire (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 14	$1.23	1.7%	16	9.8	1.63×
USP-S \| Alpine Camo (Factory New)weapon · blue	1 in 14	$1.12	1.5%	10	9.8	1.02×
SSG 08 \| Zeno (Factory New)weapon · milspec	1 in 14	$0.92	1.3%	11	9.8	1.12×
P250 \| Small Game (Factory New)weapon · milspec	1 in 14	$0.62	0.8%	7	9.8	0.71×

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgorun:v1/box/sportfield/show, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.