Strogo

A case on CSGORUN (media), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

Price
$14.49
Advertised RTP
93.11%
EV $13.49 from 42 items
Observed RTP, 30d
101.99%
567 openings, odds method
Variance
1.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
21.3%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
59.3%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
31 openings · below min
7 days
96.29%±15.70157 openings
30 days
101.99%±8.29567 openings
since tracking started
101.99%±8.29567 openings
47.5%83.5%119.5%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h3183.58%±35.3—odds
7d15796.29%±15.7+0.4σodds
30d567101.99%±8.29+2.0σodds
All567101.99%±8.29+2.0σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values42 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 567 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
★ M9 Bayonet | Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)knife · covert1 in 333,333$8200.0%00.0—
★ Talon Knife | Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)knife · covert1 in 166,667$5750.0%00.0—
Five-SeveN | Hyper Beast (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 71,429$4050.0%00.0—
★ Bayonet | Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)knife · covert1 in 34,483$3400.1%00.0—
P90 | Asiimov (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 14,925$2470.1%00.0—
M4A1-S | Cyrex (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1 in 5,848$1840.2%00.1—
★ Classic Knife | Crimson Web (Field-Tested)knife · covert1 in 2,558$1470.4%20.2—
AWP | BOOM (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 1,073$1020.7%00.5—
SSG 08 | Blood in the Water (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 801$97.930.9%00.7—
★ Paracord Knife | Crimson Web (Field-Tested)knife · covert1 in 533$85.891.2%21.11.88×
Five-SeveN | Crimson Blossom (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec1 in 341$84.961.8%31.71.81×
★ Navaja Knife | Crimson Web (Field-Tested)knife · covert1 in 210$70.962.5%42.71.48×
★ Gut Knife | Crimson Web (Field-Tested)knife · covert1 in 318$69.531.6%11.80.56×
★ Shadow Daggers | Crimson Web (Field-Tested)knife · covert1 in 237$65.082.0%32.41.25×
★ Driver Gloves | Rezan the Red (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary1 in 214$57.802.0%42.61.51×
Tec-9 | Nuclear Threat (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff1 in 195$54.172.1%42.91.38×
Desert Eagle | Code Red (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 120$43.212.7%64.71.27×
P250 | Nuclear Threat (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical1 in 108$43.013.0%55.30.95×
P90 | Cold Blooded (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 122$42.092.6%54.61.08×
AWP | Redline (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 69$36.033.9%128.21.47×
MP7 | Bloodsport (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 54$32.034.4%910.50.86×
M4A4 | Red DDPAT (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 61$30.413.7%79.30.75×
P90 | Baroque Red (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec1 in 33$24.905.6%2117.11.23×
SCAR-20 | Cyrex (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 40$23.454.4%1214.30.84×
P250 | Crimson Kimono (Factory New)weapon · industrial1 in 19$18.017.0%2029.70.67×
AWP | Fever Dream (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 17$17.237.6%4333.91.27×
Nova | Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 18$16.376.7%3431.41.08×
MAC-10 | Nuclear Garden (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec1 in 13$15.168.9%5045.11.11×
Nova | Red Quartz (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 24$10.263.2%2224.00.92×
Galil AR | Rocket Pop (Factory New)weapon · Rare1 in 24$8.502.7%2424.01.00×
Desert Eagle | Mecha Industries (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 24$8.042.5%2924.01.21×
M4A1-S | Party Animal (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 24$6.882.2%2224.00.92×
SSG 08 | Red Stone (Minimal Wear)weapon · consumer1 in 24$6.081.9%2724.01.12×
MAG-7 | Justice (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 24$5.981.9%2624.01.08×
Sawed-Off | Kiss♥Love (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink1 in 24$5.341.7%2424.01.00×
Glock-18 | Nuclear Garden (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 24$4.991.6%2524.01.04×
CZ75-Auto | Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec1 in 24$4.701.5%2824.01.17×
SG 553 | Cyrex (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 24$4.321.4%2424.01.00×
Tec-9 | Blast From the Past (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff1 in 24$3.651.1%1924.00.79×
USP-S | Cyrex (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted1 in 24$3.321.0%1824.00.75×
Negev | Nuclear Waste (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial1 in 24$2.010.6%1324.00.54×
UMP-45 | Mechanism (Factory New)weapon · industrial1 in 24$1.850.6%1924.00.79×
Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgorun:v1/box/strogo/show, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 93.11%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
4 Nov, 04:54 UTC$14.4993.11%42
3 Nov, 04:27 UTC$14.4993.96%42
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 4.3%classified 33.3%mil spec 15.5%extraordinary 0.5%#8847ff 0.5%Mythical 0.9%restricted 14.3%industrial 13.7%Rare 4.2%consumer 4.2%pink 4.2%#4b69ff 4.2%best hit —