Survival
A case on CSGORUN (knives2026), first seen 5 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.
Price
$65.99
Advertised RTP
91.52%
EV $60.39 from 29 items
Observed RTP, 30d
77.38%
5 openings, odds method
Variance
0.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
42.9%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
76.1%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 5 openings and 2.1 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values29 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 5 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgorun:v1/box/survival/show, 11 Nov, 22:43 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 91.52%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 Nov, 05:23 UTC | $65.99 | 91.52% | 29 |
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $65.99 | 94.00% | 29 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedlegendary 0.0%Immortal 12.8%rare 8.1%covert knife 35.7%knifes 0.8%covert 16.1%gold 18.4%sunny 1.6%#ffd700 6.3%best hit —