Sweetyfox
A case on CSGORUN (oldcasesale), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.
Price
$2.31
Advertised RTP
93.91%
EV $2.17 from 49 items
Observed RTP, 30d
93.52%
920 openings, odds method
Variance
3.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
16.9%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
62.8%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values49 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 920 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgorun:v1/box/sweetyfox/show, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 93.91%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $2.31 | 93.91% | 49 |
| 4 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $2.28 | 95.15% | 49 |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $2.28 | 94.66% | 49 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.1%#ffd700 0.0%classified 2.4%covert knife 0.0%extraordinary 0.0%#eb4b4b 0.0%gold 0.0%uncommon 0.0%#d32ee6 0.1%industrial 1.7%pink 6.9%restricted 27.8%#d32ce6 1.5%Mythical 2.0%Classified 2.9%Mil Spec Grade 6.1%#8847ff 15.4%Rare 16.4%blue 8.2%mil spec 8.3%best hit —