Tenderlyxfruktozka

A case on CSGORUN (media), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

Price
$0.99
Advertised RTP
93.80%
EV $0.93 from 42 items
Observed RTP, 30d
95.68%
7,610 openings, odds method
Variance
0.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
27.2%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
50.4%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
92.17%±5.78607 openings
7 days
95.40%±2.144,434 openings
30 days
95.68%±1.647,610 openings
since tracking started
95.68%±1.647,610 openings
85.5%92.0%98.5%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h60792.17%±5.78−0.6σodds
7d4,43495.40%±2.14+1.5σodds
30d7,61095.68%±1.64+1.8σodds
All7,61095.68%±1.64+1.8σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values42 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 7,612 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
★ Gut Knife | Urban Masked (Field-Tested)knife · Immortal1 in 1,000,000$49.730.0%00.0—
Galil AR | Sugar Rush (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 1,000,000$46.590.0%00.0—
Nova | Bloomstick (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 333,333$30.450.0%00.0—
SSG 08 | Orange Filigree (Minimal Wear)weapon · #4b69ff1 in 125,000$21.560.0%00.1—
AWP | Fever Dream (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 41,667$17.230.0%00.2—
M4A4 | Spider Lily (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical1 in 16,667$13.010.1%00.5—
P250 | Mint Kimono (Factory New)weapon · consumer1 in 8,772$11.140.1%00.9—
MP7 | Fade (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 2,294$6.890.3%53.31.51×
UMP-45 | Metal Flowers (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff1 in 655$6.841.1%1711.61.46×
MP9 | Rose Iron (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 1,346$6.140.5%25.70.35×
SG 553 | Candy Apple (Field-Tested)weapon · Industrial1 in 328$4.111.3%3223.21.38×
SG 553 | Desert Blossom (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff1 in 255$3.441.5%2929.80.97×
Five-SeveN | Orange Peel (Factory New)weapon · industrial1 in 106$2.652.7%6572.00.90×
AUG | Amber Fade (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff1 in 137$2.602.0%6955.41.25×
SSG 08 | Fever Dream (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 41$1.874.9%172183.50.94×
MAG-7 | BI83 Spectrum (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff1 in 54$1.863.7%131139.80.94×
MP7 | Amberline (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet1 in 34$1.665.3%218226.30.96×
Glock-18 | Candy Apple (Factory New)weapon · mil spec1 in 36$1.614.8%237212.81.11×
SG 553 | Berry Gel Coat (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare1 in 20$1.518.0%392373.21.05×
M4A1-S | Fizzy POP (Field-Tested)weapon · Mil Spec Grade1 in 25$1.416.2%327310.51.05×
Dual Berettas | Angel Eyes (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical1 in 18$1.307.7%436419.61.04×
SCAR-20 | Wild Berry (Minimal Wear)weapon · milspec1 in 22$1.286.2%338339.80.99×
M249 | Nebula Crusader (Field-Tested)weapon · violet1 in 17$1.187.4%429445.80.96×
Galil AR | Rocket Pop (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec1 in 15$1.178.2%549494.81.11×
R8 Revolver | Amber Fade (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 18$1.096.6%400428.10.93×
G3SG1 | Dream Glade (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet1 in 34$0.872.8%221225.60.98×
Desert Eagle | Mint Fan (Factory New)weapon · blue1 in 34$0.762.4%220225.60.98×
MAG-7 | Popdog (Factory New)weapon · Rare1 in 34$0.752.4%251225.61.11×
SSG 08 | Acid Fade (Factory New)weapon · mil spec1 in 34$0.622.0%224225.60.99×
P2000 | Amber Fade (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical1 in 34$0.481.5%223225.60.99×
Glock-18 | Coral Bloom (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare1 in 34$0.451.4%244225.61.08×
AUG | Amber Slipstream (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec1 in 34$0.431.4%204225.60.90×
P2000 | Coral Halftone (Factory New)weapon · industrial1 in 34$0.411.3%219225.60.97×
G3SG1 | Orange Crash (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare1 in 34$0.331.1%216225.60.96×
M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue1 in 34$0.301.0%225225.61.00×
Dual Berettas | Rose Nacre (Factory New)weapon · #5e98d91 in 34$0.280.9%230225.61.02×
Sawed-Off | Amber Fade (Minimal Wear)weapon · 11 in 34$0.200.6%202225.60.90×
MP7 | Coral Paisley (Factory New)weapon · #5e98d91 in 34$0.180.6%215225.60.95×
MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket (Minimal Wear)weapon · #4b69ff1 in 34$0.170.5%226225.61.00×
MAC-10 | Candy Apple (Minimal Wear)weapon · 21 in 34$0.160.5%206225.60.91×
Nova | Candy Apple (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial1 in 34$0.140.4%209225.80.93×
MP9 | Orange Peel (Minimal Wear)weapon · Uncommon1 in 34$0.130.4%229225.61.02×
Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgorun:v1/box/tenderlyxfruktozka/show, 11 Nov, 22:43 UTC.

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 93.80%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
4 Nov, 04:54 UTC$0.9993.80%42
3 Nov, 04:27 UTC$0.9995.56%42
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed1 3.0%2 3.0%Immortal 0.0%classified 5.6%#4b69ff 4.2%Mythical 8.5%consumer 0.0%restricted 2.5%Industrial 0.3%industrial 6.9%#8847ff 1.8%violet 11.8%mil spec 8.7%Rare 13.8%Mil Spec Grade 4.1%milspec 11.0%blue 5.9%#5e98d9 5.9%Uncommon 3.0%best hit —