Tokyoghoul
A case on CSGORUN (oldcasesale), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.
Price
$14.64
Advertised RTP
93.97%
EV $13.76 from 42 items
Observed RTP, 30d
71.82%
8 openings, odds method
Variance
1.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
20.2%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
65.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 8 openings and 1.6 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values42 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 8 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgorun:v1/box/tokyoghoul/show, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 93.97%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $14.64 | 93.97% | 42 |
| 4 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $14.10 | 97.57% | 42 |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $14.10 | 96.61% | 42 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.0%contraband 0.0%epic 0.0%legendary 0.0%classified 4.2%Immortal 0.1%gold 0.0%extraordinary 0.1%rare 0.3%covert knife 0.8%red 6.6%Covert 1.3%uncommon 7.4%restricted 29.6%Legendary 7.8%mil spec 6.9%#d32ee6 6.2%industrial 5.7%pink 12.7%violet 3.5%#8847ff 6.7%best hit —