Train 2021
A case on CSGORUN (coll2026), first seen 5 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.
Price
$8.99
Advertised RTP
91.69%
EV $8.24 from 38 items
Observed RTP, 30d
105.52%
131 openings, sample method
Variance
1.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
23.2%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
61.1%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 131 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values38 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 131 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgorun:v1/box/train2021/show, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 91.69%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 Nov, 05:23 UTC | $8.99 | 91.69% | 38 |
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $8.99 | 94.00% | 38 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedclassified 3.3%#eb4b4b 0.0%Ancient 0.0%red 0.1%covert 0.0%#d32ee6 1.6%Restricted 8.6%restricted 14.5%#8847ff 12.2%Rare 10.1%blue 19.0%Mythical 3.8%violet 3.8%Mil Spec Grade 7.6%mil spec 3.8%#4b69ff 11.5%best hit —