Vanguard

A case on CSGORUN (coll2026), first seen 5 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

Price

$3.49

Advertised RTP

91.85%

EV $3.21 from 36 items

Observed RTP, 30d

73.21%

40 openings, sample method

Variance

0.8×

of price², per opening

Tail share

22.0%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

69.9%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

2 openings · below min

7 days

40 openings · below min

30 days

40 openings · below min

since tracking started

40 openings · below min

8.5%132.3%256.0%

Small sample. 40 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	2	132.23%±123.3	—	odds
7d	40	73.21%±20.1	—	sample
30d	40	73.21%±20.1	—	sample
All	40	73.21%±20.1	—	sample

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values36 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 40 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Karambit \| Scorched (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knife	1 in 1,000,000	$493	0.0%	0	0.0	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Urban Masked (Minimal Wear)knife · knifes	1 in 1,000,000	$384	0.0%	0	0.0	—
★ Flip Knife \| Stained (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 1,000,000	$217	0.0%	0	0.0	—
★ Bayonet \| Urban Masked (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 500,000	$172	0.0%	0	0.0	—
★ Gut Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 142,857	$119	0.0%	0	0.0	—
AK-47 \| Wasteland Rebel (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 38,462	$85.42	0.1%	0	0.0	—
P2000 \| Fire Elemental (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 37,037	$79.44	0.1%	0	0.0	—
★ Gut Knife \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested)knife · gold	1 in 5,291	$46.98	0.3%	0	0.0	—
P250 \| Cartel (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 1,393	$27.83	0.6%	0	0.0	—
M4A1-S \| Basilisk (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 790	$24.04	0.9%	0	0.1	—
SCAR-20 \| Cardiac (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 558	$20.86	1.2%	0	0.1	—
P250 \| Cartel (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 103	$12.01	3.6%	0	0.4	—
XM1014 \| Tranquility (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 93	$11.93	4.0%	0	0.4	—
XM1014 \| Tranquility (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 62	$9.59	4.8%	0	0.6	—
MAG-7 \| Firestarter (Factory New)weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 43	$8.26	5.9%	2	0.9	—
M4A1-S \| Basilisk (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 36	$7.82	6.7%	1	1.1	0.91×
Glock-18 \| Grinder (Factory New)weapon · Mythical	1 in 39	$7.30	5.9%	1	1.0	0.97×
UMP-45 \| Delusion (Factory New)weapon · Mil Spec	1 in 17	$5.73	10.2%	1	2.3	0.44×
M4A4 \| Griffin (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 22	$5.45	7.8%	1	1.8	0.55×
Sawed-Off \| Highwayman (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 12	$4.78	12.2%	2	3.3	0.61×
Five-SeveN \| Urban Hazard (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 23	$3.14	4.3%	2	1.7	1.15×
MP9 \| Dart (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 23	$2.96	4.0%	0	1.7	0.00×
Five-SeveN \| Urban Hazard (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 23	$2.56	3.5%	2	1.7	1.15×
MAG-7 \| Firestarter (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 23	$2.30	3.1%	1	1.7	0.57×
Sawed-Off \| Highwayman (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 23	$2.08	2.8%	2	1.7	1.15×
Glock-18 \| Grinder (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 23	$2.01	2.7%	3	1.7	1.72×
Glock-18 \| Grinder (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 23	$1.96	2.7%	3	1.7	1.72×
G3SG1 \| Murky (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 23	$1.82	2.5%	1	1.7	0.57×
Sawed-Off \| Highwayman (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 23	$1.43	1.9%	2	1.7	1.15×
UMP-45 \| Delusion (Minimal Wear)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 23	$1.41	1.9%	3	1.7	1.72×
MP9 \| Dart (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 23	$1.24	1.7%	2	1.7	1.15×
G3SG1 \| Murky (Minimal Wear)weapon · milspec	1 in 23	$0.76	1.0%	2	1.7	1.15×
UMP-45 \| Delusion (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 23	$0.66	0.9%	1	1.7	0.57×
MAG-7 \| Firestarter (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 23	$0.64	0.9%	3	1.7	1.72×
MP9 \| Dart (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 23	$0.61	0.8%	4	1.7	2.29×
G3SG1 \| Murky (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 23	$0.59	0.8%	1	1.7	0.57×

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgorun:v1/box/vanguard/show, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear)weapon · #4b69ffгром@33rus@$3.49$1.410.40x21h

M4A1-S | Basilisk (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ffbus1k$3.49$7.822.24x22h

Five-SeveN | Urban Hazard (Factory New)weapon · mil specВолодя Шаталов$3.49$3.140.90x1d

Sawed-Off | Highwayman (Factory New)weapon · restrictednaslednik71$3.49$4.781.37x1d

UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear)weapon · #4b69ffNait-to$3.49$1.410.40x2d

M4A4 | Griffin (Minimal Wear)weapon · restrictedNait-to$3.49$5.451.56x2d

Glock-18 | Grinder (Minimal Wear)weapon · MythicalАлександр Зорин$3.49$1.960.56x2d

G3SG1 | Murky (Field-Tested)weapon · mil specEsper$3.49$0.590.17x3d

MP9 | Dart (Field-Tested)weapon · mil specmomilusa$3.49$0.610.17x4d

Glock-18 | Grinder (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ffRayjke$3.49$2.010.58x4d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 91.85%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
6 Nov, 05:23 UTC	$3.49	91.85%	36
5 Nov, 23:09 UTC	$3.49	94.00%	36

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert knife 0.0%knifes 0.0%covert 0.0%gold 0.0%classified 3.9%restricted 21.6%Mil Spec Grade 2.3%#8847ff 7.1%Mythical 6.9%Mil Spec 5.7%mil spec 43.7%#4b69ff 4.4%milspec 4.4%best hit —