Wildfire
A case on CSGORUN (coll2026), first seen 5 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.
Price
$4.99
Advertised RTP
92.77%
EV $4.63 from 38 items
Observed RTP, 30d
91.97%
80 openings, odds method
Variance
1.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
19.6%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
66.1%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 80 openings and 15.7 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values38 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 157 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgorun:v1/box/wildfire/show, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 92.77%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 Nov, 05:23 UTC | $4.99 | 92.77% | 38 |
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $4.99 | 94.00% | 38 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listed1 4.1%covert 0.3%covert knife 0.0%classified 7.3%Immortal 0.1%restricted 22.3%Classified 0.4%Legendary 1.0%mil spec 23.1%Mil Spec Grade 8.3%violet 8.3%#4b69ff 20.7%Rare 4.1%best hit —