Xm 1014
A case on CSGORUN (armory2026), first seen 5 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.
Price
$0.69
Advertised RTP
92.82%
EV $0.64 from 36 items
Observed RTP, 30d
105.56%
79 openings, odds method
Variance
1.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
25.9%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
58.3%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 79 openings and 20.5 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values36 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 125 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgorun:v1/box/xm1014/show, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 92.82%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 Nov, 05:23 UTC | $0.69 | 92.82% | 36 |
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $0.69 | 94.00% | 36 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listed1 3.9%mil spec 11.7%other 0.0%Restricted 0.0%classified 0.2%restricted 6.7%Mythical 1.8%#4b69ff 13.4%violet 8.2%Common 5.5%gray 5.5%Rare 11.7%blue 11.9%milspec 7.8%#87c7ff 3.9%industrial 3.9%Uncommon 3.9%best hit —