Zaprcase

A case on CSGORUN (oldcasesale), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

Price
$2.14
Advertised RTP
93.70%
EV $2.01 from 44 items
Observed RTP, 30d
105.87%
159 openings, odds method
Variance
2.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
25.4%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
67.8%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
2 openings · below min
7 days
114.36%±28.63109 openings
30 days
105.87%±23.84159 openings
since tracking started
105.87%±23.84159 openings
-0.5%206.5%413.5%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h2203.04%±209.6—odds
7d109114.36%±28.6+1.4σodds
30d159105.87%±23.8+0.9σodds
All159105.87%±23.8+0.9σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values44 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 159 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
Glock-18 | Fade (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 1,000,000$1,3780.1%00.0—
Desert Eagle | Blaze (Factory New)weapon · rare1 in 1,000,000$6140.0%00.0—
M4A1-S | Icarus Fell (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 500,000$4310.0%00.0—
Desert Eagle | Emerald Jörmungandr (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 500,000$4090.0%00.0—
Desert Eagle | Hand Cannon (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted1 in 500,000$3970.0%00.0—
Dual Berettas | Duelist (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted1 in 250,000$2330.0%00.0—
StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Dragon Tattoo (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 166,667$2040.1%00.0—
Desert Eagle | Crimson Web (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 83,333$1280.1%00.0—
M4A4 | Modern Hunter (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 58,824$1240.1%00.0—
Galil AR | Phoenix Blacklight (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 71,429$1190.1%00.0—
AWP | Pink DDPAT (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 76,923$1130.1%00.0—
Glock-18 | Brass (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 76,923$1110.1%00.0—
MP9 | Bulldozer (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted1 in 55,556$92.970.1%00.0—
AK-47 | Orbit Mk01 (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 31,250$77.880.1%00.0—
M4A4 | Griffin (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 22,222$67.690.2%00.0—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Bright Water (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 17,544$64.340.2%00.0—
StatTrak™ USP-S | Overgrowth (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted1 in 15,625$61.190.2%00.0—
USP-S | Orange Anolis (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 22,727$61.000.1%00.0—
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Blue Laminate (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 9,259$47.270.3%00.0—
M4A4 | Spider Lily (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 12,346$47.020.2%10.0—
USP-S | Cyrex (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 2,882$34.900.6%00.1—
USP-S | Road Rash (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted1 in 3,135$33.430.5%00.1—
AWP | Atheris (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 2,433$28.590.6%00.1—
StatTrak™ FAMAS | Valence (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 1,770$28.570.8%00.1—
Souvenir P250 | Digital Architect (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · restricted1 in 532$22.832.1%00.3—
Dual Berettas | Hemoglobin (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 308$13.882.2%00.5—
AK-47 | Midnight Laminate (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical1 in 75$6.444.3%52.12.34×
AUG | Torque (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff1 in 49$5.155.3%33.30.92×
MP9 | Arctic Tri-Tone (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 40$4.886.0%54.01.27×
USP-S | Guardian (Factory New)weapon · Mythical1 in 40$4.695.8%24.00.50×
AK-47 | Slate (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted1 in 27$3.576.5%65.81.03×
USP-S | Bleeding Edge (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical1 in 17$2.617.6%109.31.08×
MAC-10 | Saibā Oni (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical1 in 15$2.448.3%1110.81.02×
Five-SeveN | Heat Treated (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted1 in 15$2.257.6%1110.81.02×
Desert Eagle | Mulberry (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical1 in 12$2.018.1%1512.81.17×
Dual Berettas | Sweet Little Angels (Field-Tested)weapon · uncommon1 in 13$1.776.9%1212.50.96×
Glock-18 | Glockingbird (Minimal Wear)weapon · uncommon1 in 13$1.475.4%911.80.76×
M4A1-S | Glitched Paint (Field-Tested)weapon · violet1 in 14$1.244.4%1511.41.31×
Desert Eagle | Light Rail (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted1 in 15$1.063.6%1010.80.93×
StatTrak™ USP-S | Ticket to Hell (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 15$1.023.5%1210.91.10×
M4A1-S | Emphorosaur-S (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff1 in 15$0.903.0%1510.61.42×
M4A1-S | Night Terror (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted1 in 17$0.641.9%79.50.74×
UMP-45 | Moonrise (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff1 in 17$0.591.7%59.20.54×
M4A4 | Etch Lord (Field-Tested)weapon · violet1 in 19$0.371.0%58.30.60×
Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgorun:v1/box/zaprcase/show, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 93.70%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
5 Nov, 23:09 UTC$2.1493.70%44
4 Nov, 04:54 UTC$2.1294.59%44
3 Nov, 04:27 UTC$2.1294.75%44
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedrestricted 33.3%rare 0.0%Restricted 0.0%Mythical 24.5%#8847ff 14.5%uncommon 15.3%violet 12.4%best hit —