Profit Farm
A case on DaddySkins, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DaddySkins's own item price.
Price
$0.49
Advertised RTP
82.89%
EV $0.41 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
68.70%
34.6K openings, odds method
Variance
1983.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 5,000
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
93.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 35.1K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Specialist Gloves | Emerald Web (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 33,333 | $3,030 | 22.4% | 0 | 1.1 | 0.00× |
| M4A1-S | Hot Rod (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 20,000 | $1,956 | 24.1% | 2 | 1.8 | 1.14× |
| ★ Driver Gloves | Imperial Plaid (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 8,333 | $282 | 8.3% | 5 | 4.2 | 1.19× |
| Desert Eagle | Trigger Discipline (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted | 1 in 14 | $1.05 | 18.1% | 2,433 | 2458.9 | 0.99× |
| USP-S | Check Engine (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil spec | 12.0% | $0.38 | 11.2% | 4,230 | 4215.2 | 1.00× |
| G3SG1 | Green Apple (Field-Tested)weapon · #87c7ff | 15.0% | $0.10 | 3.7% | 5,299 | 5269.1 | 1.01× |
| UMP-45 | Gunsmoke (Well-Worn)weapon · 2 | 33.0% | $0.08 | 6.5% | 11,518 | 11584.9 | 0.99× |
| XM1014 | Blue Steel (Well-Worn)weapon · uncommon | 33.0% | $0.07 | 5.7% | 11,640 | 11591.9 | 1.00× |
Values are DaddySkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
daddyskins:graphql case(slug: profit-farm), 11 Nov, 08:55 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 82.89%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $0.49 | 82.89% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listed2 33.0%extraordinary 0.0%classified 0.0%restricted 7.0%mil spec 12.0%#87c7ff 15.0%uncommon 33.0%best hit $1,956 (3,993x)