Back to School Case
A case on DaddySkins, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DaddySkins's own item price.
Price
$9.14
Advertised RTP
83.31%
EV $7.61 from 17 items
Observed RTP, 30d
98.28%
1,493 openings, odds method
Variance
40.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 38
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
91.8%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values17 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,493 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are DaddySkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
daddyskins:graphql case(slug: back-to-school), 11 Nov, 08:55 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 83.31%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $9.14 | 83.31% | 17 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.6%extraordinary 0.1%mil spec 0.1%Ancient 0.3%rare 0.5%violet 36.5%pink 5.6%classified 5.0%Mythical 20.0%restricted 31.2%best hit $1,694 (185.3x)