11.11 VIP v2

A case on DaddySkins, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DaddySkins's own item price.

Price

$99.00

Advertised RTP

75.75%

EV $74.99 from 23 items

Observed RTP, 30d

99.51%

463 openings, odds method

Variance

2.9×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 11

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

86.7%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

107.89%±27.69163 openings

7 days

104.04%±18.09402 openings

30 days

99.51%±16.90463 openings

since tracking started

99.51%±16.90463 openings

79.0%107.5%136.0%

Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 82.03% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (82.61% – 116.41%, 463 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	163	107.89%±27.7	+2.0σ	odds
7d	402	104.04%±18.1	+2.4σ	odds
30d	463	99.51%±16.9	+2.0σ	odds
All	463	99.51%±16.9	+2.0σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values23 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 463 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Specialist Gloves \| Crimson Kimono (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 3,333	$3,921	1.6%	2	0.1	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 3,030	$3,237	1.4%	1	0.2	—
Glock-18 \| Fade (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 2,222	$2,385	1.4%	1	0.2	—
AWP \| Fade (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 1,667	$1,543	1.2%	0	0.3	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 1,163	$1,498	1.7%	0	0.4	—
M4A1-S \| Welcome to the Jungle (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 909	$1,242	1.8%	0	0.5	—
★ Karambit \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 694	$1,135	2.2%	0	0.7	—
AK-47 \| Vulcan (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 556	$952	2.3%	2	0.8	—
AWP \| Oni Taiji (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 417	$741	2.4%	0	1.1	0.00×
★ Talon Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · epic	1 in 222	$676	4.1%	2	2.1	0.96×
M4A4 \| Buzz Kill (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 192	$619	4.3%	5	2.4	2.08×
★ Nomad Knife \| Case Hardened (Factory New)knife · Immortal	1 in 125	$483	5.2%	2	3.7	0.54×
SSG 08 \| Death Strike (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 125	$482	5.1%	1	3.7	0.27×
★ Specialist Gloves \| Lt. Commander (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 125	$434	4.6%	1	3.7	0.27×
Desert Eagle \| Hypnotic (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 67	$250	5.0%	4	6.9	0.58×
★ Paracord Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · epic	1 in 67	$244	4.9%	7	6.9	1.01×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 67	$226	4.5%	8	6.9	1.15×
AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 67	$120	2.4%	14	6.9	2.02×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 33	$118	4.7%	14	13.9	1.01×
M4A1-S \| Vaporwave (Well-Worn)weapon · rare	1 in 17	$81.31	6.5%	17	27.8	0.61×
AWP \| Neo-Noir (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 14	$77.98	7.3%	30	32.4	0.93×
M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	18.0%	$44.24	10.6%	76	83.3	0.91×
StatTrak™ Sawed-Off \| Wasteland Princess (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Classified	55.7%	$19.90	14.8%	276	257.9	1.07×

Values are DaddySkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from daddyskins:graphql case(slug: vip1111), 11 Nov, 08:55 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Specialist Gloves | Crimson Kimono (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinaryTwintower468$99.00$3,92139.61x15h

★ Specialist Gloves | Crimson Kimono (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinaryKickZenmasterEU$90.00$3,92143.57x6d

★ Butterfly Knife | Fade (Factory New)knife · covert[BOT] Anton Chigurh$90.00$3,23735.96x23h

Glock-18 | Fade (Factory New)weapon · restricted九命猫死$90.00$2,38526.49x1d

AK-47 | Vulcan (Factory New)weapon · covert205195$90.00$95210.58x3d

AK-47 | Vulcan (Factory New)weapon · covert[BOT] Sauron$90.00$95210.58x6d

★ Talon Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · epic[BOT] Sauron$90.00$6767.51x23h

★ Talon Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · epicDoc$90.00$6767.51x2d

M4A4 | Buzz Kill (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert[BOT] T-1000$90.00$6196.87x23h

M4A4 | Buzz Kill (Minimal Wear)weapon · covertNyonya Rita$90.00$6196.87x2d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Wasteland Princess (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Classified1876120$99.00$19.900.20x4h

AWP | Neo-Noir (Factory New)weapon · covert1876120$99.00$77.980.79x4h

StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Wasteland Princess (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Classified1876120$99.00$19.900.20x4h

AWP | Neo-Noir (Factory New)weapon · covert1876120$99.00$77.980.79x4h

StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Wasteland Princess (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Classified1876120$99.00$19.900.20x4h

AK-47 | Neon Rider (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1876120$99.00$1201.22x4h

StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Wasteland Princess (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Classified[BOT] Frederick Charles Krueger$99.00$19.900.20x6h

StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Wasteland Princess (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Classified[BOT] Hans Landa$99.00$19.900.20x6h

M4A4 | Neo-Noir (Well-Worn)weapon · covert[BOT] Magneto$99.00$44.240.45x6h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 75.75%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
10 Nov, 20:44 UTC	$99.00	75.75%	23
3 Nov, 04:27 UTC	$90.00	83.33%	23

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedextraordinary 0.8%covert 30.9%restricted 0.0%epic 1.9%Immortal 0.8%classified 3.8%rare 6.0%Classified 55.7%best hit $3,921 (39.61x)