Have Fun

A case on DaddySkins, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DaddySkins's own item price.

Price

$0.53

Advertised RTP

83.30%

EV $0.44 from 9 items

Observed RTP, 30d

83.19%

35.8K openings, odds method

Variance

2.0×

of price², per opening

Tail share

61.0%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

97.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

85.03%±4.264,322 openings

7 days

83.10%±1.6229.8K openings

30 days

83.19%±1.4835.8K openings

since tracking started

83.19%±1.4835.8K openings

80.0%85.0%90.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	4,322	85.03%±4.26	+0.8σ	odds
7d	29.8K	83.10%±1.62	−0.2σ	odds
30d	35.8K	83.19%±1.48	−0.1σ	odds
All	35.8K	83.19%±1.48	−0.1σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 35.9K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Ursus Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested)knife · rare	1 in 100,000	$168	0.4%	0	0.4	—
UMP-45 \| Wild Child (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 6,667	$5.34	0.2%	3	5.4	0.56×
SSG 08 \| Parallax (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 100	$4.88	11.1%	358	359.2	1.00×
Sawed-Off \| Highwayman (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 50	$2.43	11.0%	757	718.3	1.05×
Tec-9 \| Snek-9 (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 17	$0.51	6.9%	2,143	2155.0	0.99×
G3SG1 \| Orange Crash (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 14	$0.50	7.9%	2,480	2505.1	0.99×
Glock-18 \| Off World (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 13	$0.47	8.5%	2,882	2873.3	1.00×
Sawed-Off \| Origami (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	37.0%	$0.36	30.2%	13,085	13292.2	0.98×
MAC-10 \| Silver (Factory New)weapon · light blue	39.0%	$0.27	23.9%	14,208	14007.2	1.01×

Values are DaddySkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from daddyskins:graphql case(slug: have-fun), 11 Nov, 08:55 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

MAC-10 | Silver (Factory New)weapon · light blueJohnny ´PP`$0.53$0.270.51x25s

Sawed-Off | Origami (Minimal Wear)weapon · RareSchlub$0.53$0.360.68x25s

MAC-10 | Silver (Factory New)weapon · light blueCorreac$0.53$0.270.51x25s

MAC-10 | Silver (Factory New)weapon · light blue少女情怀总是诗๑$0.53$0.270.51x25s

MAC-10 | Silver (Factory New)weapon · light blueCorreac$0.53$0.270.51x43s

Sawed-Off | Origami (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rareabd28$0.53$0.360.68x43s

Tec-9 | Snek-9 (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil specabd28$0.53$0.510.96x1m

MAC-10 | Silver (Factory New)weapon · light blueCorreac$0.53$0.270.51x1m

Sawed-Off | Origami (Minimal Wear)weapon · RareSr_CleitinhoF$0.53$0.360.68x1m

Tec-9 | Snek-9 (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec陈大佬$0.53$0.510.96x1m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 83.30%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
3 Nov, 04:27 UTC	$0.53	83.30%	9

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedrare 0.0%pink 0.0%#8847ff 1.0%restricted 2.0%mil spec 6.0%#4b69ff 7.0%Rare 45.0%light blue 39.0%best hit —