FALCHION CASE
A case on DaddySkins, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DaddySkins's own item price.
Price
$3.75
Advertised RTP
83.26%
EV $3.12 from 28 items
Observed RTP, 30d
80.02%
2,961 openings, odds method
Variance
16.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
23.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values28 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,964 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are DaddySkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
daddyskins:graphql case(slug: falchion-case), 11 Nov, 08:55 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 83.26%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $3.75 | 83.26% | 28 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedknifes 0.0%covert 0.0%covert knife 0.0%pink 0.0%classified 0.1%violet 0.3%restricted 5.4%Rare 1.0%mil spec 76.0%#4b69ff 17.0%best hit $223 (59.38x)