Huntsman Weapon Case

A case on DaddySkins, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DaddySkins's own item price.

Price
$7.85
Advertised RTP
83.24%
EV $6.53 from 27 items
Observed RTP, 30d
84.17%
1,758 openings, odds method
Variance
8.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 11
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
91.1%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
100.78%±22.90599 openings
7 days
87.03%±14.051,591 openings
30 days
84.17%±13.371,758 openings
since tracking started
84.17%±13.371,758 openings
70.0%97.3%124.5%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h599100.78%±22.9+1.5σodds
7d1,59187.03%±14.1+0.5σodds
30d1,75884.17%±13.4+0.1σodds
All1,75884.17%±13.4+0.1σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values27 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,758 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
★ Huntsman Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 20,000$9170.7%00.1—
AK-47 | Vulcan (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 20,000$8660.7%00.1—
★ Huntsman Knife | Blue Steel (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 20,000$8130.6%00.1—
★ Huntsman Knife | Night (Factory New)knife · epic1 in 20,000$7720.6%00.1—
★ Huntsman Knife | Case Hardened (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 20,000$5840.4%00.1—
M4A1-S | Atomic Alloy (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 20,000$4620.4%00.1—
★ Huntsman Knife | Scorched (Factory New)knife · #ffd7001 in 20,000$4060.3%00.1—
★ Huntsman Knife | Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 10,000$3280.5%00.2—
★ Huntsman Knife | Fade (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 3,333$2801.3%00.5—
★ Huntsman Knife | Boreal Forest (Factory New)knife · covert knife1 in 2,500$2671.6%10.7—
★ Huntsman Knife | Safari Mesh (Factory New)knife · covert knife1 in 2,000$2531.9%10.9—
★ Huntsman Knife | Forest DDPAT (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 1,667$2462.3%21.11.90×
M4A4 | Desert-Strike (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 1,429$2402.6%11.20.81×
★ Huntsman Knife | Urban Masked (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 1,000$2323.6%01.80.00×
★ Huntsman Knife | Stained (Factory New)knife · covert knife1 in 1,000$2303.5%41.82.28×
USP-S | Caiman (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 667$1423.3%52.61.90×
SCAR-20 | Cyrex (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 333$69.143.2%45.30.76×
XM1014 | Heaven Guard (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 100$24.753.8%2117.61.19×
Tec-9 | Isaac (Factory New)weapon · mil spec1 in 100$24.643.8%2017.61.14×
MAC-10 | Tatter (Factory New)weapon · violet1 in 50$18.555.7%2735.20.77×
AUG | Torque (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 50$18.445.6%4135.21.17×
PP-Bizon | Antique (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 50$18.155.6%3635.21.02×
Galil AR | Kami (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff12.0%$6.0811.2%213211.01.01×
P2000 | Pulse (Factory New)weapon · mil spec13.1%$5.0110.0%229229.51.00×
CZ75-Auto | Twist (Factory New)weapon · mil spec16.0%$4.2310.4%285281.31.01×
P90 | Module (Factory New)weapon · mil spec25.0%$2.298.8%426439.50.97×
SSG 08 | Slashed (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec25.0%$2.067.9%442439.51.01×
Values are DaddySkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from daddyskins:graphql case(slug: huntsman-weapon-case), 11 Nov, 08:55 UTC.

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 83.24%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
3 Nov, 04:27 UTC$7.8583.24%27
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 0.3%epic 0.0%classified 0.5%#ffd700 0.0%covert knife 0.2%restricted 5.0%mil spec 80.1%violet 2.0%#4b69ff 12.0%best hit —