OPERATION BREAKOUT WEAPON CASE
A case on DaddySkins, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DaddySkins's own item price.
Price
$4.95
Advertised RTP
83.18%
EV $4.12 from 25 items
Observed RTP, 30d
72.83%
1,502 openings, odds method
Variance
125.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 286
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
95.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values25 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,502 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are DaddySkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
daddyskins:graphql case(slug: operation-breakout-weapon-case), 11 Nov, 08:55 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 83.18%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $4.95 | 83.18% | 25 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.2%gold 0.0%knifes 0.0%covert knife 0.0%classified 1.1%restricted 6.2%mil spec 28.5%Mythical 10.0%Rare 32.0%Mil Spec 22.0%best hit $923 (186.5x)