CHROMA CASE
A case on DaddySkins, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DaddySkins's own item price.
Price
$4.60
Advertised RTP
83.31%
EV $3.83 from 44 items
Observed RTP, 30d
83.69%
2,460 openings, odds method
Variance
18.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 11
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
86.7%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values44 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,465 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are DaddySkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
daddyskins:graphql case(slug: chroma-case), 11 Nov, 08:55 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 83.31%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $4.60 | 83.31% | 44 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedCovert 0.0%sunny 0.0%covert 0.2%covert knife 0.0%#ffd700 0.0%classified 0.8%gold 0.2%restricted 8.0%mil spec 54.0%Mil Spec 11.7%Rare 25.0%best hit $571 (124.0x)