Tiger Tooth Case

A case on DaddySkins, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DaddySkins's own item price.

Price
$20.98
Advertised RTP
83.31%
EV $17.48 from 44 items
Observed RTP, 30d
87.63%
1,704 openings, odds method
Variance
2.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 11
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
87.7%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
79.72%±16.56342 openings
7 days
86.26%±8.341,347 openings
30 days
87.63%±7.421,704 openings
since tracking started
87.63%±7.421,704 openings
62.5%79.8%97.0%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h34279.72%±16.6−0.4σodds
7d1,34786.26%±8.34+0.7σodds
30d1,70487.63%±7.42+1.1σodds
All1,70487.63%±7.42+1.1σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values44 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,716 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
M4A4 | Poseidon (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 100,000$2,8780.2%00.0—
Glock-18 | Fade (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 100,000$2,2730.1%00.0—
M4A1-S | Hot Rod (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 100,000$1,9560.1%00.0—
★ Karambit | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 100,000$1,0570.1%00.0—
M4A1-S | Icarus Fell (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 100,000$9780.1%00.0—
★ M9 Bayonet | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 50,000$8410.1%00.0—
AK-47 | Wasteland Rebel (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 50,000$6560.1%00.0—
M4A4 | Buzz Kill (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 33,333$5850.1%00.1—
AWP | Oni Taiji (Well-Worn)weapon · covert1 in 33,333$5720.1%00.1—
USP-S | Kill Confirmed (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 33,333$5700.1%00.1—
Five-SeveN | Hyper Beast (Well-Worn)weapon · covert1 in 20,000$4570.1%00.1—
AWP | Hyper Beast (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 10,000$3550.2%00.2—
★ Bayonet | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 10,000$3460.2%00.2—
AWP | Graphite (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 10,000$2880.2%00.2—
AK-47 | Case Hardened (Well-Worn)weapon · classified1 in 2,000$2560.7%00.9—
★ Falchion Knife | Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear)knife · covert1 in 2,000$2500.7%10.9—
★ Flip Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 2,000$2470.7%00.9—
★ Huntsman Knife | Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear)knife · covert1 in 2,000$2260.6%00.9—
USP-S | Neo-Noir (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 2,000$2260.6%00.9—
USP-S | Kill Confirmed (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1 in 1,000$1801.0%31.71.75×
★ Bowie Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 1,000$1620.9%21.71.17×
M4A1-S | Master Piece (Well-Worn)weapon · classified1 in 1,000$1590.9%41.72.33×
M4A1-S | Chantico's Fire (Well-Worn)weapon · covert1 in 1,000$1560.9%31.71.75×
★ Gut Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 500$1501.7%73.42.04×
M4A1-S | Mecha Industries (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 500$1441.6%73.42.04×
AK-47 | Neon Revolution (Field-Tested)weapon · red1 in 500$1421.6%03.40.00×
SSG 08 | Blood in the Water (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 400$1372.0%54.31.17×
USP-S | Neo-Noir (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 333$1312.2%105.11.94×
AWP | Asiimov (Well-Worn)weapon · covert1 in 333$1292.2%45.10.78×
★ Shadow Daggers | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 333$1212.1%45.10.78×
P90 | Death by Kitty (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 200$1073.1%98.61.05×
AK-47 | Jaguar (Well-Worn)weapon · covert1 in 200$1063.0%68.60.70×
AK-47 | Wasteland Rebel (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 200$1063.0%88.60.93×
Desert Eagle | Pilot (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted1 in 167$94.453.2%1410.31.36×
AK-47 | Red Laminate (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 133$83.893.6%2112.91.63×
USP-S | Kill Confirmed (Well-Worn)weapon · covert1 in 100$77.444.4%1517.20.87×
M4A1-S | Atomic Alloy (Well-Worn)weapon · classified1 in 67$46.214.0%2825.71.09×
AWP | Hyper Beast (Well-Worn)weapon · covert1 in 67$45.463.9%3025.71.17×
AK-47 | Frontside Misty (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 33$27.844.8%5651.51.09×
M4A1-S | Decimator (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 13$19.478.6%142132.11.08×
AK-47 | Rat Rod (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted20.0%$14.7216.8%335343.20.98×
StatTrak™ Galil AR | Chromatic Aberration (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified20.0%$8.569.8%346343.21.01×
StatTrak™ P2000 | Wicked Sick (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified20.0%$5.556.4%335343.20.98×
StatTrak™ Dual Berettas | Hydro Strike (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted20.0%$2.623.0%321343.20.94×
Values are DaddySkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from daddyskins:graphql case(slug: tiger), 11 Nov, 08:55 UTC.

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 83.31%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
3 Nov, 04:27 UTC$20.9883.31%44
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedclassified 53.1%restricted 20.6%covert 6.1%red 0.2%Restricted 20.0%best hit —