Give me that
A case on DaddySkins, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DaddySkins's own item price.
Price
$81.53
Advertised RTP
83.33%
EV $67.94 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
82.79%
250 openings, odds method
Variance
2.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
21.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
79.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 252 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ M9 Bayonet | Lore (Minimal Wear)knife · covert | 1 in 200 | $1,298 | 9.6% | 0 | 1.3 | 0.00× |
| ★ Stiletto Knife | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knife | 1 in 67 | $408 | 9.0% | 4 | 3.8 | 1.06× |
| AK-47 | Aquamarine Revenge (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 50 | $341 | 10.0% | 8 | 5.0 | 1.59× |
| ★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife | Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife | 1 in 33 | $230 | 10.1% | 7 | 7.6 | 0.93× |
| ★ Shadow Daggers | Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 25 | $166 | 9.8% | 10 | 10.1 | 0.99× |
| ★ Flip Knife | Damascus Steel (Field-Tested)knife · covert | 10.0% | $159 | 23.4% | 28 | 25.2 | 1.11× |
| ★ Navaja Knife | Forest DDPAT (Minimal Wear)knife · covert | 22.0% | $67.30 | 21.8% | 57 | 55.4 | 1.03× |
| AK-47 | Phantom Disruptor (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ee6 | 57.0% | $7.51 | 6.3% | 138 | 143.6 | 0.96× |
Values are DaddySkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
daddyskins:graphql case(slug: give-me-that), 11 Nov, 08:55 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 83.33%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $81.53 | 83.33% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 38.5%covert knife 4.5%#d32ee6 57.0%best hit —