Luck 50%

A case on DaddySkins, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DaddySkins's own item price.

Price

$1.74

Advertised RTP

82.93%

EV $1.44 from 9 items

Observed RTP, 30d

82.21%

7,129 openings, odds method

Variance

1.7×

of price², per opening

Tail share

50.0%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

88.7%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

86.47%±9.39732 openings

7 days

82.79%±3.305,932 openings

30 days

82.21%±3.017,129 openings

since tracking started

82.21%±3.017,129 openings

76.5%86.5%96.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	732	86.47%±9.39	+0.7σ	odds
7d	5,932	82.79%±3.30	−0.1σ	odds
30d	7,129	82.21%±3.01	−0.5σ	odds
All	7,129	82.21%±3.01	−0.5σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 7,147 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Shadow Daggers \| Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 9,091	$141	1.1%	0	0.8	—
MP9 \| Hypnotic (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 917	$23.80	1.8%	5	7.8	0.64×
StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Chromatic Aberration (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Legendary	1 in 200	$9.78	3.4%	38	35.7	1.06×
M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 100	$9.38	6.5%	74	71.5	1.04×
M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 56	$8.92	11.1%	143	128.6	1.11×
AWP \| Worm God (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 50	$3.45	4.8%	121	142.9	0.85×
Glock-18 \| Moonrise (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 17	$1.82	7.4%	424	421.7	1.01×
M4A4 \| Converter (Factory New)weapon · blue	38.7%	$1.53	41.0%	2,741	2764.5	0.99×
P250 \| Cyber Shell (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	50.0%	$0.66	22.9%	3,601	3573.5	1.01×

Values are DaddySkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from daddyskins:graphql case(slug: luck-50), 11 Nov, 08:55 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

M4A4 | Converter (Factory New)weapon · blueGiorno Giovanna$1.74$1.530.88x7m

M4A4 | Converter (Factory New)weapon · blueGustaGOD$1.74$1.530.88x7m

Glock-18 | Moonrise (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical少女情怀总是诗๑$1.74$1.821.05x7m

Glock-18 | Moonrise (Minimal Wear)weapon · MythicalGustaGOD$1.74$1.821.05x10m

M4A4 | Converter (Factory New)weapon · blueSchlub$1.74$1.530.88x10m

Glock-18 | Moonrise (Minimal Wear)weapon · MythicalLoosyGoosy$1.74$1.821.05x10m

M4A1-S | Nightmare (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified少女情怀总是诗๑$1.74$8.925.13x10m

M4A4 | Converter (Factory New)weapon · bluePucho$1.74$1.530.88x10m

M4A4 | Converter (Factory New)weapon · blueGustaGOD$1.74$1.530.88x11m

M4A4 | Converter (Factory New)weapon · blueSchlub$1.74$1.530.88x11m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 82.93%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
3 Nov, 04:27 UTC	$1.74	82.93%	9

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 0.0%#8847ff 2.1%Legendary 0.5%pink 1.0%classified 1.8%Mythical 5.9%blue 38.7%violet 50.0%best hit —