Lucky Grave
A case on DaddySkins, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DaddySkins's own item price.
Price
$161.36
Advertised RTP
83.33%
EV $134.47 from 11 items
Observed RTP, 30d
94.36%
278 openings, odds method
Variance
2.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 13
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
84.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values11 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 278 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Talon Knife | Fade (Factory New)knife · epic | 1 in 25 | $1,106 | 32.9% | 10 | 11.1 | 0.90× |
| AWP | Oni Taiji (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 1 in 25 | $683 | 20.3% | 16 | 11.1 | 1.44× |
| M4A4 | Neo-Noir (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 25 | $352 | 10.5% | 13 | 11.1 | 1.17× |
| ★ Talon Knife | Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested)knife · covert knife | 1 in 25 | $291 | 8.6% | 19 | 11.1 | 1.71× |
| AK-47 | Neon Rider (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert | 1 in 25 | $122 | 3.6% | 10 | 11.1 | 0.90× |
| ★ Ursus Knife | Boreal Forest (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knife | 1 in 20 | $97.59 | 3.6% | 17 | 13.9 | 1.22× |
| M4A4 | The Emperor (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert | 15.0% | $67.52 | 7.5% | 44 | 41.7 | 1.06× |
| ★ Driver Gloves | Racing Green (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary | 15.0% | $59.48 | 6.6% | 39 | 41.7 | 0.94× |
| AWP | Neo-Noir (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 15.0% | $51.71 | 5.8% | 37 | 41.7 | 0.89× |
| Desert Eagle | Naga (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted | 15.0% | $2.88 | 0.3% | 39 | 41.7 | 0.94× |
| P250 | Nevermore (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted | 15.0% | $1.22 | 0.1% | 34 | 41.7 | 0.82× |
Values are DaddySkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
daddyskins:graphql case(slug: lucky-grave), 11 Nov, 08:55 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 83.33%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $161 | 83.33% | 11 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedepic 4.0%covert 42.0%covert knife 9.0%extraordinary 15.0%restricted 30.0%best hit $1,106 (6.86x)