11.11
A case on DaddySkins, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DaddySkins's own item price.
Price
$11.18
Advertised RTP
83.29%
EV $9.31 from 11 items
Observed RTP, 30d
76.22%
1,915 openings, odds method
Variance
12.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
10.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
69.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values11 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,964 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWP | The Prince (Well-Worn)weapon · legendary | 1 in 10,000 | $2,700 | 2.9% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| ★ Ursus Knife | Fade (Minimal Wear)knife · covert | 1 in 4,348 | $837 | 2.1% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| ★ Hand Wraps | Cobalt Skulls (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 4,000 | $702 | 1.9% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| ★ Talon Knife | Marble Fade (Minimal Wear)knife · Covert | 1 in 3,846 | $695 | 1.9% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| ★ Stiletto Knife | Slaughter (Field-Tested)knife · covert | 1 in 3,226 | $464 | 1.5% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| ★ Ursus Knife | Doppler (Factory New)knife · sunny | 1 in 2,778 | $368 | 1.4% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| AWP | Wildfire (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 2,000 | $265 | 1.4% | 1 | 1.0 | — |
| ★ Specialist Gloves | Fade (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 313 | $199 | 6.8% | 8 | 6.3 | 1.27× |
| StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Xiangliu (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified | 1 in 11 | $32.96 | 33.6% | 182 | 186.6 | 0.98× |
| StatTrak™ AK-47 | Slate (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted | 21.0% | $17.59 | 39.7% | 425 | 412.6 | 1.03× |
| USP-S | Flashback (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted | 69.0% | $0.90 | 6.7% | 1,348 | 1354.6 | 1.00× |
Values are DaddySkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
daddyskins:graphql case(slug: 1111-2019), 11 Nov, 08:55 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 83.29%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $11.18 | 83.29% | 11 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedlegendary 0.0%covert 0.1%extraordinary 0.3%Covert 0.0%sunny 0.0%classified 9.5%restricted 90.0%best hit —