Black Friday

A case on DaddySkins, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DaddySkins's own item price.

Price

$10.48

Advertised RTP

83.34%

EV $8.73 from 15 items

Observed RTP, 30d

88.42%

1,211 openings, odds method

Variance

18.7×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 19

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

90.6%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

83.54%±81.17109 openings

7 days

92.27%±26.601,015 openings

30 days

88.42%±24.351,211 openings

since tracking started

88.42%±24.351,211 openings

1.5%83.5%165.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	109	83.54%±81.2	+0.0σ	odds
7d	1,015	92.27%±26.6	+0.7σ	odds
30d	1,211	88.42%±24.4	+0.4σ	odds
All	1,211	88.42%±24.4	+0.4σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values15 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,211 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
Glock-18 \| Fade (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 5,000	$2,412	5.5%	0	0.2	—
M4A4 \| Buzz Kill (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 3,333	$1,463	5.0%	1	0.4	—
AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 333	$142	4.9%	3	3.6	0.83×
AK-47 \| The Empress (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 250	$127	5.8%	4	4.8	0.83×
AK-47 \| Asiimov (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient	1 in 167	$82.43	5.7%	11	7.3	1.51×
AWP \| Neo-Noir (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 167	$81.64	5.6%	6	7.3	0.83×
M4A4 \| The Emperor (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 143	$74.43	6.0%	11	8.5	1.30×
AWP \| Wildfire (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 143	$70.66	5.7%	8	8.5	0.94×
AWP \| Atheris (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 50	$26.47	6.1%	25	24.2	1.03×
MP9 \| Hydra (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 25	$14.07	6.4%	56	48.4	1.16×
AUG \| Death by Puppy (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 13	$8.68	8.0%	95	96.9	0.98×
MP7 \| Fade (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 12	$8.16	8.1%	99	104.8	0.95×
P90 \| Nostalgia (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	10.0%	$7.35	8.4%	138	121.1	1.14×
Tec-9 \| Remote Control (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	24.0%	$3.74	10.3%	284	290.6	0.98×
Desert Eagle \| Heat Treated (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	40.0%	$1.88	8.6%	470	484.4	0.97×

Values are DaddySkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from daddyskins:graphql case(slug: black-friday-2019), 11 Nov, 08:55 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

M4A4 | Buzz Kill (Factory New)weapon · covertBeliever.$10.48$1,463139.6x2d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

MP7 | Fade (Factory New)weapon · restrictedTamerunal98$10.48$8.160.78x8m

Desert Eagle | Heat Treated (Well-Worn)weapon · pinkHath Master$10.48$1.880.18x8m

AUG | Death by Puppy (Well-Worn)weapon · classified`bizzkit$10.48$8.680.83x8m

Tec-9 | Remote Control (Field-Tested)weapon · classifiedBugghappen$10.48$3.740.36x8m

AWP | Atheris (Factory New)weapon · restrictedPekelnicek$10.48$26.472.53x39m

Desert Eagle | Heat Treated (Well-Worn)weapon · pinkCorreac$10.48$1.880.18x39m

Desert Eagle | Heat Treated (Well-Worn)weapon · pinkSchlub$10.48$1.880.18x39m

MP7 | Fade (Factory New)weapon · restricted[BOT] Voldemort$10.48$8.160.78x39m

Desert Eagle | Heat Treated (Well-Worn)weapon · pink[BOT] Bane$10.48$1.880.18x39m

Desert Eagle | Heat Treated (Well-Worn)weapon · pink[BOT] Alonzo Harris$10.48$1.880.18x39m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 83.34%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
3 Nov, 04:27 UTC	$10.48	83.34%	15

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedrestricted 10.7%covert 2.7%Ancient 0.6%classified 46.0%pink 40.0%best hit $1,463 (139.6x)