2020
A case on DaddySkins, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DaddySkins's own item price.
Price
$3.13
Advertised RTP
83.10%
EV $2.60 from 15 items
Observed RTP, 30d
84.35%
3,574 openings, odds method
Variance
59.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 192
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
98.8%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values15 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,584 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are DaddySkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
daddyskins:graphql case(slug: 2020), 11 Nov, 15:00 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 83.10%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $3.13 | 83.10% | 15 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.5%gold 0.0%epic 0.0%classified 0.2%violet 0.2%pink 0.3%mil spec 39.8%restricted 59.0%best hit $1,016 (324.5x)