Arena Chest

A case on DaddySkins, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DaddySkins's own item price.

Price

$7.01

Advertised RTP

83.29%

EV $5.84 from 19 items

Observed RTP, 30d

67.84%

1,518 openings, odds method

Variance

23.6×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 51

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

90.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

153 openings · below min

7 days

72.81%±27.171,226 openings

30 days

67.84%±24.421,518 openings

since tracking started

67.84%±24.421,518 openings

-0.5%65.5%131.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	153	53.90%±76.9	—	odds
7d	1,226	72.81%±27.2	−0.8σ	odds
30d	1,518	67.84%±24.4	−1.2σ	odds
All	1,518	67.84%±24.4	−1.2σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values19 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,538 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AWP \| The Prince (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$2,450	4.2%	0	0.2	—
★ Skeleton Knife \| Stained (Factory New)knife · epic	1 in 2,000	$437	3.7%	1	0.8	—
★ Stiletto Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 2,000	$417	3.6%	1	0.8	—
★ Nomad Knife \| Slaughter (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 1,667	$321	3.3%	1	0.9	—
★ Classic Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 1,667	$296	3.0%	0	0.9	—
★ Sport Gloves \| Omega (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 1,667	$281	2.9%	0	0.9	—
★ Survival Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 1,429	$218	2.6%	0	1.1	0.00×
MAC-10 \| Stalker (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 1,429	$210	2.5%	1	1.1	0.93×
AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 1,429	$195	2.3%	0	1.1	0.00×
★ StatTrak™ Survival Knife \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 1,000	$175	3.0%	0	1.5	0.00×
MAC-10 \| Gold Brick (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 667	$155	4.0%	1	2.3	0.43×
AWP \| Wildfire (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 571	$112	3.4%	6	2.7	2.23×
AK-47 \| Wasteland Rebel (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 500	$96.73	3.3%	2	3.1	0.65×
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| The Emperor (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 286	$72.63	4.4%	4	5.4	0.74×
AK-47 \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 200	$53.02	4.5%	6	7.7	0.78×
AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 100	$26.02	4.5%	18	15.4	1.17×
UMP-45 \| Plastique (Factory New)weapon · violet	1 in 33	$10.57	5.4%	38	46.1	0.82×
AUG \| Death by Puppy (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 25	$7.72	5.3%	67	61.5	1.09×
CZ75-Auto \| Red Astor (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	90.0%	$2.21	34.1%	1,392	1384.6	1.01×

Values are DaddySkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from daddyskins:graphql case(slug: arena-chest), 11 Nov, 08:55 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Skeleton Knife | Stained (Factory New)knife · epic[BOT] Bane$7.01$43762.33x3d

★ Stiletto Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covertSANTOS$7.01$41759.48x1d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

CZ75-Auto | Red Astor (Minimal Wear)weapon · restrictedAT11$7.01$2.210.32x18m

CZ75-Auto | Red Astor (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted陈大佬$7.01$2.210.32x18m

CZ75-Auto | Red Astor (Minimal Wear)weapon · restrictedGeneral pp$7.01$2.210.32x18m

AUG | Death by Puppy (Minimal Wear)weapon · classifiedZyaa$7.01$7.721.10x18m

CZ75-Auto | Red Astor (Minimal Wear)weapon · restrictedaZa-zA$7.01$2.210.32x18m

CZ75-Auto | Red Astor (Minimal Wear)weapon · restrictedSchlub$7.01$2.210.32x18m

CZ75-Auto | Red Astor (Minimal Wear)weapon · restrictedEVI7QUEEN$7.01$2.210.32x24m

CZ75-Auto | Red Astor (Minimal Wear)weapon · restrictedaZa-zA$7.01$2.210.32x24m

CZ75-Auto | Red Astor (Minimal Wear)weapon · restrictedinbo$7.01$2.210.32x24m

CZ75-Auto | Red Astor (Minimal Wear)weapon · restrictedJewish Gem Goblin$7.01$2.210.32x24m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 83.29%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
3 Nov, 04:27 UTC	$7.01	83.29%	19

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 1.6%epic 0.1%extraordinary 0.1%covert knife 0.1%restricted 90.2%classified 5.0%violet 3.0%best hit $437 (62.33x)