Arena Treasure
A case on DaddySkins, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DaddySkins's own item price.
Price
$99.98
Advertised RTP
83.33%
EV $83.31 from 22 items
Observed RTP, 30d
88.62%
3,361 openings, odds method
Variance
14.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 25
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
86.9%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values22 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,361 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are DaddySkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
daddyskins:graphql case(slug: arena-treasure), 11 Nov, 08:55 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 83.33%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $99.98 | 83.33% | 22 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcontraband 0.1%covert 7.1%legendary 0.3%extraordinary 6.5%epic 0.5%restricted 26.7%classified 37.7%covert knife 2.0%Ancient 5.0%red 7.0%mil spec 7.0%best hit $8,572 (85.74x)