Spring Fever
A case on DaddySkins, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DaddySkins's own item price.
Price
$2.17
Advertised RTP
83.05%
EV $1.80 from 15 items
Observed RTP, 30d
79.29%
5,244 openings, odds method
Variance
46.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 154
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
95.9%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values15 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 5,256 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are DaddySkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
daddyskins:graphql case(slug: spring-fever), 11 Nov, 08:55 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 83.05%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $2.17 | 83.05% | 15 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.3%gold 0.1%mil spec 61.0%restricted 35.5%classified 1.6%#d32ee6 0.5%Legendary 1.0%best hit $445 (205.1x)