Double Pumpkins
A case on DaddySkins, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DaddySkins's own item price.
Price
$20.00
Advertised RTP
83.29%
EV $16.66 from 6 items
Observed RTP, 30d
76.02%
1,066 openings, odds method
Variance
5.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 18
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
89.3%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,066 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| StatTrak™ AK-47 | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified | 1 in 500 | $696 | 8.4% | 0 | 2.1 | 0.00× |
| ★ Skeleton Knife | Stained (Minimal Wear)knife · gold | 1 in 143 | $292 | 12.2% | 7 | 7.5 | 0.94× |
| AK-47 | Leet Museo (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red | 1 in 125 | $238 | 11.4% | 8 | 8.5 | 0.94× |
| AK-47 | Legion of Anubis (Factory New)weapon · Ancient | 1 in 25 | $79.44 | 19.1% | 44 | 42.6 | 1.03× |
| Desert Eagle | Printstream (Well-Worn)weapon · Covert | 1 in 20 | $50.14 | 15.0% | 55 | 53.3 | 1.03× |
| AWP | Atheris (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted | 89.3% | $6.31 | 33.8% | 952 | 951.9 | 1.00× |
Values are DaddySkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
daddyskins:graphql case(slug: double-pumpkins), 11 Nov, 15:00 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 83.29%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $20.00 | 83.29% | 6 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedclassified 0.2%gold 0.7%red 0.8%Ancient 4.0%Covert 5.0%restricted 89.3%best hit —