Bones
A case on DaddySkins, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DaddySkins's own item price.
Price
$6.10
Advertised RTP
83.27%
EV $5.08 from 10 items
Observed RTP, 30d
86.99%
1,937 openings, odds method
Variance
24.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 44
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
86.8%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,983 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Ursus Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · legendary | 1 in 2,000 | $1,085 | 10.7% | 1 | 1.0 | — |
| ★ Skeleton Knife | Stained (Field-Tested)knife · gold | 1 in 500 | $274 | 10.8% | 5 | 4.0 | 1.26× |
| Desert Eagle | Printstream (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 200 | $116 | 11.4% | 14 | 9.9 | 1.41× |
| AWP | Containment Breach (Well-Worn)weapon · covert | 1 in 200 | $102 | 10.0% | 8 | 9.9 | 0.81× |
| MP9 | Hydra (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified | 1 in 100 | $69.92 | 13.8% | 20 | 19.8 | 1.01× |
| SG 553 | Darkwing (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 1 in 20 | $8.14 | 8.0% | 77 | 99.2 | 0.78× |
| MP5-SD | Phosphor (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary | 1 in 17 | $6.25 | 7.4% | 111 | 119.0 | 0.93× |
| M4A4 | Tooth Fairy (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary | 15.0% | $5.59 | 16.5% | 309 | 297.4 | 1.04× |
| MAG-7 | Monster Call (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet | 25.0% | $1.64 | 8.1% | 470 | 495.8 | 0.95× |
| M4A4 | Converter (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare | 46.8% | $0.36 | 3.3% | 968 | 927.1 | 1.04× |
Values are DaddySkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
daddyskins:graphql case(slug: bones), 11 Nov, 08:55 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 83.27%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $6.10 | 83.27% | 10 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedlegendary 0.1%gold 0.2%covert 1.0%classified 1.0%restricted 5.0%Legendary 21.0%violet 25.0%Rare 46.8%best hit $1,085 (177.9x)