Grim

A case on DaddySkins, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DaddySkins's own item price.

Price

$13.73

Advertised RTP

83.28%

EV $11.43 from 21 items

Observed RTP, 30d

84.40%

1,929 openings, odds method

Variance

32.9×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 22

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

84.4%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

62.06%±87.55165 openings

7 days

86.68%±27.601,660 openings

30 days

84.40%±25.601,929 openings

since tracking started

84.40%±25.601,929 openings

-0.5%75.0%150.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	165	62.06%±87.5	−0.5σ	odds
7d	1,660	86.68%±27.6	+0.2σ	odds
30d	1,929	84.40%±25.6	+0.1σ	odds
All	1,929	84.40%±25.6	+0.1σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values21 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,932 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 20,000	$7,147	3.1%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$3,724	3.3%	0	0.2	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 5,000	$1,140	2.0%	1	0.4	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Blue Steel (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 5,000	$1,112	1.9%	0	0.4	—
Desert Eagle \| Blaze (Factory New)weapon · rare	1 in 5,000	$1,086	1.9%	1	0.4	—
M4A4 \| Hellfire (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 5,000	$1,058	1.9%	0	0.4	—
AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 5,000	$1,005	1.8%	1	0.4	—
USP-S \| Target Acquired (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 2,000	$842	3.7%	2	1.0	—
AWP \| Oni Taiji (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 2,000	$749	3.3%	1	1.0	—
M4A4 \| Hellfire (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 2,000	$609	2.7%	2	1.0	—
★ Skeleton Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 1,000	$374	3.3%	1	1.9	0.52×
★ Falchion Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 500	$172	3.0%	2	3.9	0.52×
AWP \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 200	$79.13	3.5%	8	9.7	0.83×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Night (Field-Tested)knife · covert knife	1 in 200	$70.58	3.1%	14	9.7	1.45×
★ Navaja Knife \| Ultraviolet (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife	1 in 100	$68.69	6.0%	19	19.3	0.98×
AWP \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 100	$54.66	4.8%	17	19.3	0.88×
USP-S \| Cortex (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 100	$45.35	4.0%	14	19.3	0.72×
M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Factory New)weapon · Legendary	1 in 100	$26.14	2.3%	21	19.3	1.09×
UMP-45 \| Primal Saber (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	10.0%	$14.79	12.9%	191	193.2	0.99×
M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	23.0%	$9.67	19.5%	429	444.4	0.97×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Flashback (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	61.4%	$2.29	12.3%	1,208	1186.9	1.02×

Values are DaddySkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from daddyskins:graphql case(slug: grim), 11 Nov, 08:55 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ M9 Bayonet | Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert[BOT] Max Cady$13.73$1,14083.04x1d

Desert Eagle | Blaze (Factory New)weapon · rarePumpinator$13.73$1,08679.08x1d

AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Well-Worn)weapon · covert[BOT] King Joffrey$13.73$1,00573.18x3d

USP-S | Target Acquired (Factory New)weapon · classifiedAssCat ZarrY$13.73$84261.36x23h

USP-S | Target Acquired (Factory New)weapon · classifiedSakuJhin$13.73$84261.36x3d

AWP | Oni Taiji (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert[BOT] Bane$13.73$74954.54x1d

M4A4 | Hellfire (Minimal Wear)weapon · classifiedSTINYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYY$13.73$60944.36x3d

M4A4 | Hellfire (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1ntenze$13.73$60944.36x5d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

M4A1-S | Nightmare (Well-Worn)weapon · pink[BOT] Darth Vader$13.73$9.670.70x4m

M4A1-S | Nightmare (Well-Worn)weapon · pink[BOT] Thanos$13.73$9.670.70x4m

StatTrak™ USP-S | Flashback (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted[BOT] John Doe$13.73$2.290.17x4m

StatTrak™ USP-S | Flashback (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted[BOT] Alonzo Harris$13.73$2.290.17x4m

StatTrak™ USP-S | Flashback (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restrictedso lucky$13.73$2.290.17x4m

UMP-45 | Primal Saber (Field-Tested)weapon · pink[BOT] The Joker$13.73$14.791.08x4m

★ Navaja Knife | Ultraviolet (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife[BOT] Anton Chigurh$13.73$68.695.00x40m

StatTrak™ USP-S | Flashback (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted[BOT] Voldemort$13.73$2.290.17x40m

StatTrak™ USP-S | Flashback (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted[BOT] Frederick Charles Krueger$13.73$2.290.17x40m

StatTrak™ USP-S | Flashback (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted[BOT] Bane$13.73$2.290.17x40m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 83.28%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
3 Nov, 04:27 UTC	$13.73	83.28%	21

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 1.9%rare 0.0%classified 1.1%covert knife 1.5%Legendary 1.0%pink 33.0%restricted 61.4%best hit $1,140 (83.04x)