Lava Stone CS2 Case
A case on DaddySkins, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DaddySkins's own item price.
Price
$2.00
Advertised RTP
83.33%
EV $1.67 from 11 items
Observed RTP, 30d
87.77%
7,551 openings, odds method
Variance
21.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
10.6%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
89.4%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values11 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 7,553 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AUG | Akihabara Accept (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert | 1 in 100,000 | $1,503 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| ★ Nomad Knife | Fade (Factory New)knife · epic | 1 in 33,333 | $519 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| ★ Talon Knife | Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear)knife · covert | 1 in 33,333 | $512 | 0.9% | 2 | 0.2 | — |
| ★ Falchion Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 10,000 | $239 | 1.4% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| ★ Paracord Knife | Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert | 1 in 5,000 | $208 | 2.5% | 2 | 1.5 | 1.32× |
| ★ Flip Knife | Lore (Field-Tested)knife · covert | 1 in 4,000 | $203 | 3.0% | 1 | 1.9 | 0.53× |
| ★ Survival Knife | Crimson Web (Field-Tested)knife · covert | 1 in 2,000 | $134 | 4.0% | 7 | 3.8 | 1.85× |
| ★ Navaja Knife | Night Stripe (Field-Tested)knife · Immortal | 1 in 1,000 | $74.09 | 4.4% | 6 | 7.6 | 0.79× |
| XM1014 | Entombed (Factory New)weapon · Legendary | 1 in 67 | $12.03 | 10.8% | 119 | 113.3 | 1.05× |
| MAC-10 | Disco Tech (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified | 1 in 11 | $10.94 | 58.1% | 656 | 668.4 | 0.98× |
| SG 553 | Ol' Rusty (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare | 89.4% | $0.24 | 12.9% | 6,760 | 6755.3 | 1.00× |
Values are DaddySkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
daddyskins:graphql case(slug: lava-bonanza), 11 Nov, 08:55 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 83.33%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $2.00 | 83.33% | 11 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.1%epic 0.0%Immortal 0.1%Legendary 1.5%classified 8.8%Rare 89.4%best hit $512 (255.8x)