Fine Tools

A case on DaddySkins, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DaddySkins's own item price.

Price
$84.89
Advertised RTP
83.33%
EV $70.74 from 31 items
Observed RTP, 30d
83.35%
422 openings, odds method
Variance
0.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
55.6%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
98.4%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
68 openings · below min
7 days
83.25%±4.03347 openings
30 days
83.35%±3.66422 openings
since tracking started
83.35%±3.66422 openings
73.0%82.8%92.5%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h6882.96%±9.11—odds
7d34783.25%±4.03−0.0σodds
30d42283.35%±3.66+0.0σodds
All42283.35%±3.66+0.0σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values31 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 422 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
★ M9 Bayonet | Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 50,000$4,7020.1%00.0—
★ Butterfly Knife | Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert1 in 20,000$1,6000.1%00.0—
★ Karambit | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 14,286$1,0570.1%00.0—
★ Talon Knife | Fade (Factory New)knife · epic1 in 10,000$9850.1%00.0—
★ Butterfly Knife | Damascus Steel (Field-Tested)knife · gold1 in 10,000$9090.1%00.0—
★ M9 Bayonet | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 10,000$8410.1%00.0—
★ M9 Bayonet | Damascus Steel (Field-Tested)knife · covert1 in 5,000$5110.1%00.1—
★ Karambit | Urban Masked (Field-Tested)knife · covert1 in 5,000$4640.1%10.1—
★ Stiletto Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 5,000$4450.1%00.1—
★ Classic Knife | Fade (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 5,000$4300.1%00.1—
★ Bayonet | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 5,000$4260.1%00.1—
★ Stiletto Knife | Damascus Steel (Minimal Wear)knife · covert1 in 3,333$2900.1%00.1—
★ Falchion Knife | Fade (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 3,333$2530.1%00.1—
★ Falchion Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 3,333$2200.1%00.1—
★ Stiletto Knife | Safari Mesh (Field-Tested)knife · covert knife1 in 2,500$1690.1%00.2—
★ Gut Knife | Fade (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 2,500$1580.1%00.2—
★ Flip Knife | Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert1 in 2,000$1450.1%00.2—
★ Gut Knife | Autotronic (Field-Tested)knife · covert1 in 2,000$1410.1%00.2—
★ Shadow Daggers | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 943$1210.2%00.4—
★ Bowie Knife | Stained (Field-Tested)knife · covert1 in 500$1110.3%00.8—
★ Huntsman Knife | Night (Field-Tested)knife · covert1 in 263$1060.6%31.61.87×
★ Falchion Knife | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested)knife · covert1 in 200$96.890.7%22.10.95×
★ Gut Knife | Scorched (Field-Tested)knife · covert10.0%$75.5910.7%4142.20.97×
★ Navaja Knife | Stained (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knife11.0%$75.4311.7%5246.41.12×
★ Gut Knife | Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested)knife · covert11.0%$73.4111.4%4146.40.88×
★ Gut Knife | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested)knife · covert11.0%$71.6111.1%5946.41.27×
★ Shadow Daggers | Night (Field-Tested)knife · covert knife11.0%$69.6810.8%4946.41.06×
★ Shadow Daggers | Urban Masked (Field-Tested)knife · covert11.0%$68.4810.6%4846.41.03×
★ Navaja Knife | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested)knife · #ffd70011.0%$63.159.8%4346.40.93×
★ Navaja Knife | Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert11.1%$62.909.9%3646.80.77×
★ Navaja Knife | Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested)knife · covert knife11.3%$62.6910.0%4747.70.99×
Values are DaddySkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from daddyskins:graphql case(slug: fine-tools), 11 Nov, 08:55 UTC.

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 83.33%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
3 Nov, 04:27 UTC$84.8983.33%31
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 55.6%epic 0.0%gold 0.0%covert knife 33.3%#ffd700 11.0%best hit —