Fire
A case on DaddySkins, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DaddySkins's own item price.
Price
$5.00
Advertised RTP
83.32%
EV $4.17 from 21 items
Observed RTP, 30d
69.10%
2,562 openings, odds method
Variance
59.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 159
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
94.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values21 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,567 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are DaddySkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
daddyskins:graphql case(slug: fire), 11 Nov, 08:55 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 83.32%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $5.00 | 83.32% | 21 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.8%extraordinary 0.0%Covert 0.1%red 0.1%mil spec 57.2%restricted 0.5%classified 0.7%#d32ee6 3.5%milspec 37.1%best hit $1,101 (220.1x)