Rainbow
A case on DaddySkins, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DaddySkins's own item price.
Price
$170.70
Advertised RTP
83.33%
EV $142.25 from 7 items
Observed RTP, 30d
93.95%
404 openings, odds method
Variance
2.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
20.1%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
79.9%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 404 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Karambit | Fade (Minimal Wear)knife · epic | 1 in 100 | $2,252 | 15.8% | 8 | 4.0 | 1.98× |
| ★ Talon Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · epic | 1 in 100 | $646 | 4.5% | 1 | 4.0 | 0.25× |
| ★ Bayonet | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 33 | $404 | 8.7% | 9 | 12.4 | 0.73× |
| AWP | Hyper Beast (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 20 | $355 | 12.5% | 11 | 20.3 | 0.54× |
| ★ Bayonet | Freehand (Factory New)knife · covert | 10.0% | $242 | 17.0% | 51 | 40.4 | 1.26× |
| ★ Gut Knife | Fade (Factory New)knife · covert | 35.0% | $158 | 38.8% | 158 | 141.4 | 1.12× |
| MP7 | Fade (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 44.9% | $8.16 | 2.6% | 166 | 181.4 | 0.92× |
Values are DaddySkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
daddyskins:graphql case(slug: rainbow), 11 Nov, 08:55 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 83.33%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $171 | 83.33% | 7 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedepic 2.0%covert 53.1%restricted 44.9%best hit $2,252 (13.19x)