Lucky Sticker
A case on DaddySkins, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DaddySkins's own item price.
Price
$6.53
Advertised RTP
83.32%
EV $5.44 from 11 items
Observed RTP, 30d
82.84%
8,670 openings, odds method
Variance
309.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 667
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
99.4%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values11 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 8,698 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sticker | Reason Gaming | Katowice 2014sticker · high | 1 in 10,000 | $9,600 | 17.6% | 1 | 0.9 | — |
| Sticker | Howling Dawnsticker · contraband | 1 in 2,500 | $2,000 | 14.7% | 5 | 3.5 | 1.44× |
| Sticker | Team Dignitas | Katowice 2014sticker · high | 1 in 2,000 | $1,300 | 11.9% | 4 | 4.3 | 0.92× |
| Sticker | Vox Eminor | Katowice 2014sticker · high | 1 in 2,000 | $1,156 | 10.6% | 1 | 4.3 | 0.23× |
| Sticker | Fnatic | Katowice 2014sticker · High Grade | 1 in 2,000 | $900 | 8.3% | 4 | 4.3 | 0.92× |
| Sticker | Tyloo (Foil) | Boston 2018sticker · Legendary | 1 in 2,000 | $850 | 7.8% | 4 | 4.3 | 0.92× |
| Sticker | Vox Eminor (Holo) | Cologne 2014sticker · violet | 1 in 1,000 | $310 | 5.7% | 11 | 8.7 | 1.26× |
| Sticker | Titan | Katowice 2015sticker · High Grade | 1 in 1,000 | $137 | 2.5% | 5 | 8.7 | 0.57× |
| Sticker | Cloud9 (Holo) | Boston 2018sticker · remarkable | 1 in 1,000 | $110 | 2.0% | 9 | 8.7 | 1.03× |
| Sticker | Ninjas in Pyjamas | DreamHack 2014sticker · high | 1 in 1,000 | $27.00 | 0.5% | 9 | 8.7 | 1.03× |
| Sticker | Drug War Veteransticker · High Grade | 99.4% | $1.00 | 18.3% | 8,645 | 8641.5 | 1.00× |
Values are DaddySkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
daddyskins:graphql case(slug: lucky-sticker), 11 Nov, 08:55 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 83.32%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $6.53 | 83.32% | 11 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedhigh 0.2%contraband 0.0%High Grade 99.5%Legendary 0.1%violet 0.1%remarkable 0.1%best hit $9,600 (1,470x)