Sparkles Case
A case on DaddySkins, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DaddySkins's own item price.
Price
$19.71
Advertised RTP
83.31%
EV $16.42 from 18 items
Observed RTP, 30d
118.07%
1,095 openings, odds method
Variance
29.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 21
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
89.3%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 83.31% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (86.16% – 149.99%, 1,095 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,111 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are DaddySkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
daddyskins:graphql case(slug: sparkles), 11 Nov, 08:55 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 83.31%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $19.71 | 83.31% | 18 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcontraband 0.0%classified 4.0%restricted 0.0%#d32ee6 0.0%covert 1.1%Classified 0.1%extraordinary 0.5%red 1.0%exotic 1.0%Mythical 24.1%mil spec 20.0%pink 22.0%Rare 26.2%best hit $8,551 (433.9x)