5% Case Hardened Knife
A case on DaddySkins, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DaddySkins's own item price.
Price
$19.30
Advertised RTP
82.87%
EV $15.99 from 10 items
Observed RTP, 30d
75.32%
1,295 openings, odds method
Variance
20.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 59
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
95.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,297 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Karambit | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)knife · covert | 1 in 1,000 | $1,106 | 6.9% | 1 | 1.3 | 0.77× |
| ★ Butterfly Knife | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)knife · gold | 1 in 500 | $1,079 | 13.5% | 4 | 2.6 | 1.54× |
| ★ Karambit | Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert | 1 in 333 | $752 | 14.1% | 3 | 3.9 | 0.77× |
| ★ Classic Knife | Case Hardened (Factory New)knife · knifes | 1 in 200 | $394 | 12.3% | 7 | 6.5 | 1.08× |
| ★ Stiletto Knife | Case Hardened (Field-Tested)knife · gold | 1 in 167 | $367 | 13.8% | 5 | 7.8 | 0.64× |
| ★ Falchion Knife | Case Hardened (Field-Tested)knife · Immortal | 1 in 86 | $228 | 16.5% | 12 | 15.0 | 0.80× |
| ★ Gut Knife | Case Hardened (Well-Worn)knife · covert | 1 in 47 | $125 | 16.7% | 20 | 27.8 | 0.72× |
| StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Trigger Discipline (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted | 25.0% | $3.36 | 5.3% | 335 | 324.3 | 1.03× |
| FAMAS | Decommissioned (Well-Worn)weapon · mil spec | 30.0% | $0.40 | 0.8% | 398 | 389.1 | 1.02× |
| Galil AR | Cold Fusion (Minimal Wear)weapon · #87c7ff | 40.0% | $0.10 | 0.3% | 512 | 518.8 | 0.99× |
Values are DaddySkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
daddyskins:graphql case(slug: 5-case-hardened-knife), 11 Nov, 08:55 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 82.87%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $19.30 | 82.87% | 10 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 2.5%gold 0.8%knifes 0.5%Immortal 1.2%restricted 25.0%mil spec 30.0%#87c7ff 40.0%best hit $1,106 (57.29x)