Gold or Stone
A case on DaddySkins, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DaddySkins's own item price.
Price
$55.96
Advertised RTP
83.33%
EV $46.63 from 12 items
Observed RTP, 30d
101.26%
616 openings, odds method
Variance
3.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 11
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
81.8%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 83.33% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (85.93% – 116.59%, 616 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 616 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are DaddySkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
daddyskins:graphql case(slug: gold-or-stone), 11 Nov, 08:55 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 83.33%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $55.96 | 83.33% | 12 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listed#d32ee6 0.3%extraordinary 9.0%sunny 1.3%covert 13.8%classified 53.8%restricted 22.0%best hit $1,552 (27.73x)