1% Heaven
A case on DaddySkins, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DaddySkins's own item price.
Price
$5.85
Advertised RTP
83.29%
EV $4.87 from 16 items
Observed RTP, 30d
75.30%
4,250 openings, odds method
Variance
75.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 100
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
99.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4,254 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are DaddySkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
daddyskins:graphql case(slug: 1-heaven), 11 Nov, 08:55 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 83.29%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $5.85 | 83.29% | 16 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 1.0%epic 0.0%Rare 19.8%mil spec 19.8%blue 19.8%milspec 19.8%industrial 19.8%best hit $2,310 (394.8x)