Junior DD
A case on DaddySkins, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DaddySkins's own item price.
Price
$42.24
Advertised RTP
83.33%
EV $35.20 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
96.26%
637 openings, odds method
Variance
1.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
14.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
81.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 83.33% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (85.96% – 106.56%, 637 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 637 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Bowie Knife | Fade (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 33 | $267 | 22.7% | 19 | 19.1 | 0.99× |
| AWP | Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 1 in 33 | $172 | 14.7% | 30 | 19.1 | 1.57× |
| M4A4 | Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert | 1 in 25 | $103 | 11.7% | 35 | 25.5 | 1.37× |
| ★ Bowie Knife | Bright Water (Field-Tested)knife · gold | 1 in 25 | $90.02 | 10.2% | 32 | 25.5 | 1.26× |
| AWP | Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert | 1 in 20 | $80.49 | 11.4% | 35 | 31.9 | 1.10× |
| StatTrak™ M4A4 | In Living Color (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Covert | 14.0% | $40.05 | 15.9% | 89 | 89.2 | 1.00× |
| M4A1-S | Fizzy POP (Factory New)weapon · Rare | 28.0% | $13.59 | 10.8% | 168 | 178.4 | 0.94× |
| Tec-9 | Safety Net (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Mil Spec | 39.0% | $2.21 | 2.4% | 229 | 248.4 | 0.92× |
Values are DaddySkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
daddyskins:graphql case(slug: junior-dd), 11 Nov, 15:00 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ M4A4 | In Living Color (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Covert[BOT] Bane$42.24$40.050.95x
StatTrak™ M4A4 | In Living Color (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Covert[BOT] T-1000$42.24$40.050.95x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 83.33%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $42.24 | 83.33% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 15.0%gold 4.0%Covert 14.0%Rare 28.0%Mil Spec 39.0%best hit —