CS2 Countdown Case
A case on DaddySkins, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DaddySkins's own item price.
Price
$7.87
Advertised RTP
83.27%
EV $6.55 from 38 items
Observed RTP, 30d
90.23%
1,904 openings, odds method
Variance
12.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 28
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
83.9%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values38 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,912 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are DaddySkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
daddyskins:graphql case(slug: countdown), 11 Nov, 15:00 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 83.27%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $7.87 | 83.27% | 38 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listed#eb4b4b 0.0%red 0.0%Mythical 0.0%classified 5.5%covert 1.0%industrial 12.0%restricted 8.1%extraordinary 0.5%#ffd700 0.1%Covert 0.1%Ancient 0.1%#8847ff 0.5%violet 9.5%pink 6.5%consumer 10.0%Rare 13.0%milspec 24.9%blue 8.0%best hit $1,211 (153.9x)