Slow and Steady

A case on DaddySkins, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DaddySkins's own item price.

Price

$2.92

Advertised RTP

83.24%

EV $2.43 from 12 items

Observed RTP, 30d

63.60%

3,821 openings, odds method

Variance

55.4×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 118

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

95.2%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

65.87%±53.05756 openings

7 days

66.32%±25.463,284 openings

30 days

63.60%±23.603,821 openings

since tracking started

63.60%±23.603,821 openings

12.0%65.8%119.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	756	65.87%±53.1	−0.6σ	odds
7d	3,284	66.32%±25.5	−1.3σ	odds
30d	3,821	63.60%±23.6	−1.6σ	odds
All	3,821	63.60%±23.6	−1.6σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,845 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AWP \| Elite Build (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 1,000	$616	25.3%	1	3.8	0.26×
SSG 08 \| Bloodshot (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 1,000	$187	7.7%	3	3.8	0.78×
★ Moto Gloves \| Smoke Out (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 1,000	$143	5.9%	4	3.8	1.04×
★ Hand Wraps \| Duct Tape (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 500	$87.29	7.2%	6	7.7	0.78×
P250 \| Whiteout (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	1 in 286	$65.01	9.4%	15	13.5	1.11×
Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Minimal Wear)weapon · Classified	1 in 200	$40.90	8.4%	16	19.2	0.83×
MP5-SD \| Autumn Twilly (Factory New)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 200	$28.54	5.9%	17	19.2	0.88×
FAMAS \| Contrast Spray (Well-Worn)weapon · #777777	1 in 100	$6.29	2.6%	27	38.5	0.70×
M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 100	$5.59	2.3%	40	38.5	1.04×
Dual Berettas \| Drift Wood (Field-Tested)weapon · Uncommon	1 in 100	$3.32	1.4%	26	38.5	0.68×
USP-S \| Ticket to Hell (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	15.2%	$1.16	7.2%	569	582.5	0.98×
Tec-9 \| Flash Out (Well-Worn)weapon · mil spec	80.0%	$0.51	16.8%	3,121	3076.0	1.01×

Values are DaddySkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from daddyskins:graphql case(slug: slow-and-steady), 11 Nov, 08:55 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

AWP | Elite Build (Factory New)weapon · classified❥.晓$2.92$616210.9x4d

SSG 08 | Bloodshot (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified642438$2.92$18764.04x6h

SSG 08 | Bloodshot (Minimal Wear)weapon · classifiedAzrael$2.92$18764.04x6d

SSG 08 | Bloodshot (Minimal Wear)weapon · classifiedCadu$2.92$18764.04x7d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Tec-9 | Flash Out (Well-Worn)weapon · mil specNinguém404$2.92$0.510.17x32m

USP-S | Ticket to Hell (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythicalriquee$2.92$1.160.40x32m

Tec-9 | Flash Out (Well-Worn)weapon · mil specMaDaRa$2.92$0.510.17x32m

P250 | Whiteout (Field-Tested)weapon · blue1124827605$2.92$65.0122.26x40m

Tec-9 | Flash Out (Well-Worn)weapon · mil specRetroGod$2.92$0.510.17x40m

Tec-9 | Flash Out (Well-Worn)weapon · mil specRetroGod$2.92$0.510.17x42m

Tec-9 | Flash Out (Well-Worn)weapon · mil specHath Master$2.92$0.510.17x42m

USP-S | Ticket to Hell (Field-Tested)weapon · MythicalTamerunal98$2.92$1.160.40x42m

USP-S | Ticket to Hell (Field-Tested)weapon · MythicalAT11$2.92$1.160.40x1h

Tec-9 | Flash Out (Well-Worn)weapon · mil specWolfadro$2.92$0.510.17x1h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 83.24%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
3 Nov, 04:27 UTC	$2.92	83.24%	12

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedclassified 0.2%extraordinary 0.3%blue 0.3%Classified 0.5%#8847ff 0.5%#777777 1.0%Legendary 1.0%Uncommon 1.0%Mythical 15.2%mil spec 80.0%best hit $616 (210.9x)