AUG V.2
A case on DaddySkins, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DaddySkins's own item price.
Price
$29.90
Advertised RTP
83.31%
EV $24.91 from 30 items
Observed RTP, 30d
86.78%
1,199 openings, odds method
Variance
3.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
14.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
80.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values30 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,199 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are DaddySkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
daddyskins:graphql case(slug: aug), 11 Nov, 08:55 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 83.31%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $29.90 | 83.31% | 30 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 1.8%restricted 8.8%mil spec 12.3%classified 29.2%Restricted 2.0%Rare 3.0%uncommon 3.0%#d32ee6 16.0%pink 8.0%Legendary 8.0%Mythical 8.0%best hit $618 (20.68x)