Vulcan V.2
A case on DaddySkins, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DaddySkins's own item price.
Price
$243.30
Advertised RTP
83.33%
EV $202.75 from 10 items
Observed RTP, 30d
80.08%
421 openings, odds method
Variance
0.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
36.3%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
78.7%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 421 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| StatTrak™ AK-47 | Vulcan (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert | 1 in 833 | $1,615 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| StatTrak™ AK-47 | Vulcan (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert | 1 in 400 | $985 | 1.2% | 0 | 1.1 | 0.00× |
| AK-47 | Vulcan (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 143 | $866 | 3.0% | 3 | 2.9 | 1.02× |
| AK-47 | Vulcan (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert | 1 in 143 | $469 | 1.6% | 2 | 2.9 | 0.68× |
| StatTrak™ AK-47 | Vulcan (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert | 1 in 81 | $405 | 2.5% | 3 | 5.2 | 0.58× |
| StatTrak™ AK-47 | Vulcan (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert | 1 in 24 | $313 | 6.3% | 14 | 17.3 | 0.81× |
| StatTrak™ AK-47 | Vulcan (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert | 1 in 24 | $298 | 6.2% | 23 | 17.7 | 1.30× |
| AK-47 | Vulcan (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 10.0% | $293 | 14.5% | 37 | 42.1 | 0.88× |
| AK-47 | Vulcan (Well-Worn)weapon · covert | 15.0% | $195 | 14.4% | 51 | 63.1 | 0.81× |
| AK-47 | Vulcan (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert | 63.7% | $157 | 49.4% | 288 | 268.1 | 1.07× |
Values are DaddySkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
daddyskins:graphql case(slug: vulcan), 11 Nov, 15:00 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 83.33%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $243 | 83.33% | 10 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 100.0%best hit $866 (3.56x)