AWP V.2
A case on DaddySkins, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DaddySkins's own item price.
Price
$5.19
Advertised RTP
83.28%
EV $4.32 from 32 items
Observed RTP, 30d
82.34%
11.7K openings, odds method
Variance
63.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 152
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
93.1%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values32 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 11.7K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are DaddySkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
daddyskins:graphql case(slug: awp), 11 Nov, 08:55 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 83.28%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $5.19 | 83.28% | 32 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.6%#d32ee6 0.0%classified 0.9%Restricted 0.1%industrial 0.1%restricted 13.7%Legendary 1.5%#8847ff 3.1%Rare 55.0%#4b69ff 25.0%best hit $1,340 (258.2x)