Moonlight gem

A case on DaddySkins, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DaddySkins's own item price.

Price

$2.64

Advertised RTP

83.09%

EV $2.19 from 12 items

Observed RTP, 30d

82.22%

3,806 openings, odds method

Variance

4.0×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 14

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

93.1%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

78.89%±18.95431 openings

7 days

79.04%±7.133,040 openings

30 days

82.22%±6.383,806 openings

since tracking started

82.22%±6.383,806 openings

59.5%79.0%98.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	431	78.89%±18.9	−0.4σ	odds
7d	3,040	79.04%±7.13	−1.1σ	odds
30d	3,806	82.22%±6.38	−0.3σ	odds
All	3,806	82.22%±6.38	−0.3σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,819 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Huntsman Knife \| Night (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 2,000	$109	2.5%	2	1.9	1.05×
★ Survival Knife \| Night Stripe (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife	1 in 2,000	$86.60	2.0%	3	1.9	1.57×
CZ75-Auto \| Yellow Jacket (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 1,000	$45.25	2.1%	3	3.8	0.79×
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 400	$32.00	3.6%	13	9.5	1.36×
Galil AR \| Amber Fade (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 200	$23.95	5.5%	14	19.1	0.73×
AUG \| Stymphalian (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 100	$20.31	9.3%	35	38.2	0.92×
StatTrak™ AWP \| PAW (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mythical	1 in 50	$18.87	17.2%	67	76.4	0.88×
M4A1-S \| Flashback (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 33	$10.23	14.0%	126	114.6	1.10×
MAG-7 \| Heat (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 20	$2.57	5.9%	188	191.0	0.98×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Trigger Discipline (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 20	$2.24	5.1%	195	191.0	1.02×
M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	21.8%	$1.49	14.8%	823	832.5	0.99×
P250 \| Cyber Shell (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	61.3%	$0.65	18.1%	2,350	2339.1	1.00×

Values are DaddySkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from daddyskins:graphql case(slug: moonlight-gem), 11 Nov, 15:00 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

P250 | Cyber Shell (Well-Worn)weapon · violetBlueBeard$2.64$0.650.25x10m

M4A1-S | Night Terror (Minimal Wear)weapon · MythicalBlackSkull$2.64$1.490.56x10m

M4A1-S | Night Terror (Minimal Wear)weapon · MythicalBlueBeard$2.64$1.490.56x11m

M4A1-S | Night Terror (Minimal Wear)weapon · MythicalBlackSkull$2.64$1.490.56x11m

M4A1-S | Night Terror (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythicalloord$2.64$1.490.56x1h

AUG | Stymphalian (Factory New)weapon · classifiedDangerouS!? [#w]$2.64$20.317.69x1h

P250 | Cyber Shell (Well-Worn)weapon · violetIvan Nicipuruk Jebiewdenko$2.64$0.650.25x1h

P250 | Cyber Shell (Well-Worn)weapon · violet^0]^1RELIGION^3[KILL]$2.64$0.650.25x1h

P250 | Cyber Shell (Well-Worn)weapon · violet♛Serchitto♛ noLove$2.64$0.650.25x1h

M4A1-S | Night Terror (Minimal Wear)weapon · MythicalChubby$2.64$1.490.56x1h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 83.09%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
3 Nov, 04:27 UTC	$2.64	83.09%	12

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 0.1%covert knife 0.1%classified 1.4%#4b69ff 0.5%Mythical 31.8%restricted 5.0%violet 61.3%best hit —