Toxic Origin

A case on DaddySkins, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DaddySkins's own item price.

Price

$97.32

Advertised RTP

83.33%

EV $81.10 from 92 items

Observed RTP, 30d

82.56%

283 openings, odds method

Variance

0.3×

of price², per opening

Tail share

41.0%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

88.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

90 openings · below min

7 days

83.05%±6.34261 openings

30 days

82.56%±6.09283 openings

since tracking started

82.56%±6.09283 openings

70.5%82.0%93.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	90	82.06%±10.8	—	odds
7d	261	83.05%±6.34	−0.1σ	odds
30d	283	82.56%±6.09	−0.2σ	odds
All	283	82.56%±6.09	−0.2σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values92 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 283 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Butterfly Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 4,000	$1,993	0.6%	0	0.1	—
★ Talon Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 4,000	$812	0.3%	0	0.1	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 4,000	$595	0.2%	0	0.1	—
★ Talon Knife \| Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife	1 in 4,000	$534	0.2%	0	0.1	—
★ Stiletto Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 2,000	$505	0.3%	0	0.1	—
★ Talon Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 2,000	$502	0.3%	0	0.1	—
★ Talon Knife \| Damascus Steel (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knife	1 in 2,000	$454	0.3%	1	0.1	—
★ Talon Knife \| Stained (Field-Tested)knife · covert knife	1 in 2,000	$409	0.3%	0	0.1	—
★ Skeleton Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 2,000	$403	0.2%	0	0.1	—
★ Talon Knife \| Ultraviolet (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 2,000	$374	0.2%	1	0.1	—
★ Skeleton Knife \| Blue Steel (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 2,000	$372	0.2%	0	0.1	—
★ Skeleton Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 2,000	$347	0.2%	0	0.1	—
★ Bowie Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 2,000	$333	0.2%	0	0.1	—
★ Huntsman Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 2,000	$332	0.2%	1	0.1	—
★ Talon Knife \| Night Stripe (Field-Tested)knife · covert knife	1 in 2,000	$321	0.2%	0	0.1	—
★ Nomad Knife \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 2,000	$306	0.2%	0	0.1	—
★ Talon Knife \| Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knife	1 in 2,000	$301	0.2%	0	0.1	—
★ Ursus Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 1,000	$293	0.4%	0	0.3	—
★ Huntsman Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 1,000	$289	0.4%	0	0.3	—
★ Stiletto Knife \| Blue Steel (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife	1 in 1,000	$283	0.3%	0	0.3	—
★ Falchion Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 1,000	$273	0.3%	0	0.3	—
★ Ursus Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · rare	1 in 1,000	$264	0.3%	1	0.3	—
★ Stiletto Knife \| Urban Masked (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knife	1 in 1,000	$261	0.3%	1	0.3	—
★ Talon Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife	1 in 1,000	$258	0.3%	0	0.3	—
★ Classic Knife \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 1,000	$247	0.3%	0	0.3	—
★ Falchion Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 1,000	$239	0.3%	0	0.3	—
★ Bowie Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 667	$238	0.4%	0	0.4	—
★ Paracord Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 667	$208	0.4%	0	0.4	—
★ Paracord Knife \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 500	$196	0.5%	1	0.6	—
★ Stiletto Knife \| Scorched (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife	1 in 500	$189	0.5%	1	0.6	—
★ Ursus Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested)knife · rare	1 in 500	$168	0.4%	0	0.6	—
★ Gut Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 500	$167	0.4%	0	0.6	—
★ Flip Knife \| Damascus Steel (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 400	$166	0.5%	1	0.7	—
★ Skeleton Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 400	$162	0.5%	1	0.7	—
★ Nomad Knife \| Stained (Well-Worn)knife · gold	1 in 400	$162	0.5%	0	0.7	—
★ Flip Knife \| Ultraviolet (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife	1 in 400	$154	0.5%	0	0.7	—
★ Ursus Knife \| Damascus Steel (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 400	$153	0.5%	1	0.7	—
★ Gut Knife \| Lore (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 400	$153	0.5%	0	0.7	—
★ Ursus Knife \| Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 400	$152	0.5%	0	0.7	—
★ Survival Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 333	$148	0.5%	0	0.8	—
★ Gut Knife \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 333	$143	0.5%	0	0.8	—
★ Huntsman Knife \| Damascus Steel (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 333	$141	0.5%	0	0.8	—
★ Survival Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 333	$134	0.5%	1	0.8	—
★ Nomad Knife \| Boreal Forest (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 333	$130	0.5%	1	0.8	—
★ Navaja Knife \| Slaughter (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 333	$128	0.5%	0	0.8	—
★ Falchion Knife \| Freehand (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife	1 in 250	$127	0.6%	1	1.1	0.88×
★ Ursus Knife \| Damascus Steel (Field-Tested)knife · covert knife	1 in 250	$118	0.6%	1	1.1	0.88×
★ Gut Knife \| Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 250	$117	0.6%	0	1.1	0.00×
★ Nomad Knife \| Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knife	1 in 250	$117	0.6%	1	1.1	0.88×
★ Classic Knife \| Scorched (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 250	$113	0.6%	6	1.1	5.30×
★ Nomad Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 250	$111	0.5%	2	1.1	1.77×
★ Classic Knife \| Boreal Forest (Minimal Wear)knife · gold	1 in 250	$111	0.5%	1	1.1	0.88×
★ Gut Knife \| Bright Water (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 250	$102	0.5%	1	1.1	0.88×
★ Huntsman Knife \| Ultraviolet (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife	1 in 200	$99.44	0.6%	3	1.4	2.12×
★ Navaja Knife \| Damascus Steel (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 200	$98.31	0.6%	0	1.4	0.00×
★ Falchion Knife \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred)knife · #ffd700	1 in 200	$97.58	0.6%	2	1.4	1.41×
★ Falchion Knife \| Boreal Forest (Battle-Scarred)knife · #ffd700	1 in 200	$97.56	0.6%	1	1.4	0.71×
★ Falchion Knife \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 200	$97.33	0.6%	1	1.4	0.71×
★ Navaja Knife \| Blue Steel (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 200	$96.37	0.6%	1	1.4	0.71×
★ Gut Knife \| Black Laminate (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 200	$94.50	0.6%	1	1.4	0.71×
★ Ursus Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife	1 in 200	$92.22	0.6%	1	1.4	0.71×
★ Gut Knife \| Urban Masked (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife	1 in 200	$89.25	0.6%	3	1.4	2.12×
★ Bowie Knife \| Urban Masked (Field-Tested)knife · covert knife	1 in 200	$88.47	0.5%	1	1.4	0.71×
★ Bowie Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife	1 in 200	$86.90	0.5%	5	1.4	3.53×
★ Navaja Knife \| Blue Steel (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 100	$83.72	1.0%	5	2.8	1.77×
★ Gut Knife \| Night (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 100	$83.57	1.0%	4	2.8	1.41×
★ Gut Knife \| Night (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 100	$82.44	1.0%	3	2.8	1.06×
★ Gut Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 100	$81.00	1.0%	5	2.8	1.77×
★ Gut Knife \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 100	$80.28	1.0%	0	2.8	0.00×
★ Navaja Knife \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 50	$78.75	1.9%	6	5.7	1.06×
★ Gut Knife \| Boreal Forest (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife	1 in 50	$77.34	1.9%	2	5.7	0.35×
★ Bowie Knife \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife	1 in 50	$76.83	1.9%	7	5.7	1.24×
★ Navaja Knife \| Ultraviolet (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife	1 in 50	$76.73	1.9%	7	5.7	1.24×
★ Gut Knife \| Safari Mesh (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 50	$75.08	1.9%	8	5.7	1.41×
★ Navaja Knife \| Night Stripe (Field-Tested)knife · Immortal	1 in 50	$74.09	1.8%	6	5.7	1.06×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested)knife · gold	1 in 33	$73.93	2.7%	7	8.5	0.82×
★ Survival Knife \| Boreal Forest (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife	1 in 33	$73.38	2.7%	8	8.5	0.94×
★ Survival Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested)knife · Immortal	1 in 33	$71.46	2.6%	6	8.5	0.71×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Safari Mesh (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 33	$70.83	2.6%	8	8.5	0.94×
★ Navaja Knife \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 33	$70.40	2.6%	8	8.5	0.94×
★ Navaja Knife \| Urban Masked (Field-Tested)knife · covert knife	1 in 25	$70.05	3.5%	13	11.3	1.15×
★ Navaja Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Battle-Scarred)knife · gold	1 in 25	$69.78	3.4%	13	11.3	1.15×
★ Navaja Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife	1 in 25	$68.69	3.4%	15	11.3	1.33×
★ Navaja Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 25	$67.30	3.3%	10	11.3	0.88×
★ Navaja Knife \| Scorched (Well-Worn)knife · Covert	1 in 25	$66.54	3.3%	13	11.3	1.15×
★ Navaja Knife \| Scorched (Field-Tested)knife · covert knife	1 in 25	$65.32	3.2%	11	11.3	0.97×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Scorched (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 25	$65.22	3.2%	10	11.3	0.88×
★ Navaja Knife \| Urban Masked (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife	1 in 20	$65.06	4.0%	19	14.1	1.34×
★ Navaja Knife \| Night Stripe (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 20	$64.91	4.0%	10	14.1	0.71×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 20	$63.85	3.9%	14	14.1	0.99×
★ Navaja Knife \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested)knife · #ffd700	1 in 20	$63.75	3.9%	13	14.1	0.92×
★ Navaja Knife \| Safari Mesh (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 20	$62.90	3.9%	8	14.1	0.57×

Values are DaddySkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from daddyskins:graphql case(slug: toxic-origin), 11 Nov, 08:55 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

★ Navaja Knife | Ultraviolet (Field-Tested)knife · covert[BOT] Frederick Charles Krueger$97.32$78.750.81x5h

★ Navaja Knife | Urban Masked (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife[BOT] Hans Landa$97.32$65.060.67x5h

★ Navaja Knife | Night Stripe (Field-Tested)knife · Immortal[BOT] Magneto$97.32$74.090.76x5h

★ Navaja Knife | Urban Masked (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife[BOT] Mr. Blonde$97.32$65.060.67x5h

★ Stiletto Knife | Scorched (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife[BOT] Voldemort$97.32$1891.95x5h

★ Shadow Daggers | Scorched (Battle-Scarred)knife · covertDave$97.32$65.220.67x5h

★ Shadow Daggers | Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert[BOT] T-1000$97.32$63.850.66x5h

★ Navaja Knife | Safari Mesh (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert[BOT] Magneto$97.32$62.900.65x5h

★ Navaja Knife | Blue Steel (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert[BOT] Dr. Evil$97.32$83.720.86x5h

★ Navaja Knife | Ultraviolet (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife[BOT] Frederick Charles Krueger$97.32$76.730.79x5h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 83.33%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
3 Nov, 04:27 UTC	$97.32	83.33%	92

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 46.4%covert knife 30.7%rare 0.3%gold 7.6%#ffd700 6.0%Immortal 5.0%Covert 4.0%best hit —